Melbourne vs Richmond AFL Round 5 betting tips

Melbourne vs Richmond AFL betting preview

The Melbourne Demons and Richmond Tigers were not scheduled to meet in round five, but the coronavirus outbreak in Victoria has forced the AFL to shuffle the fixture.

Simon Goodwin’s Demons have already been involved in a COVID situation, as their clash with Essendon in round three was postponed, but this time they will get to play.

Football experts are finding it difficult to pinpoint exactly where the Tigers are going wrong this year, but we think teams are simply protecting the ball better and not allowing the defending premiers to score from turnovers.

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Although Melbourne is not a powerhouse team by any measure, the list is good and should pose a big threat to Damian Hardwick and his Tigers.

A knee injury to David Astbury leaves Richmond vulnerable in the back six, but the Demons run a small forward line, meaning the absence of the tall defender won’t be as critical.

We love the ruck battle between Toby Nankervis and Max Gawn, as that matchup could decide the midfield contest and determine who wins the match.

Melbourne vs Richmond disposal tips

Angus Brayshaw’s numbers have dropped dramatically since Melbourne brought Ed Langdon and Adam Tomlinson onto the wings, but this match is a perfect opportunity for the tough midfielder to get back on track. He will start on the forward flank but should see plenty of time in the middle, where his skills will be needed to get around the rugged Richmond defence.

Fans of Dustin Martin will tell you he is the best player ever, but his impact has been down in 2020 and he needs to go back to basics. He wins the ball well when he is on the move and buzzing around the contest, which he hasn’t done very often this year. We think Martin needs to stand up and beat Clayton Oliver, who has been very good this season for the Dees.

Melbourne vs Richmond goalscorer betting

This is shaping up as Christian Petracca’s best season to date, as he is winning more of the footy and impacting the scoreboard regularly. The team sheet has Petracca named to start the match at full forward, and we like his speed and power out of the goal square. An odd matchup early could give Petracca the chance to draw first blood in this game.

The small fleet of Richmond forwards is usually hard to contain, and Shane Edwards is the experienced leader of the flock. His skills are unmatched in the Richmond rooms, so he will come into his own if the conditions are less than ideal. Edwards kicked the first goal last week in 15 seconds and while we don’t expect such an immediate impact here, he should kick a major at some stage.

Melbourne vs Richmond match predictions

Wet conditions at the MCG will make the game slightly sloppy, pushing us in the direction of a low-scoring affair. These two sides rarely play in high-scoring matches against each other, with the last four contests all lower than 160 total points. The shortened game time and underdone skills have seen teams struggle to get 120 on a good day, so the unders is the way to go.

The only area of the ground where we see a stark difference is the forward lines, as Tom Lynch and Jack Riewoldt have far better credentials than Tom McDonald and Bailey Fritsch. Even with Riewoldt out of sorts this season, the Tigers will score easier and should win the match by a slight-to-moderate margin.