Melbourne vs GWS betting tips & top value bets – Round 5, 2022

April 14, 2022 5:31 pm.by Jackson Byrne

Demons vs Giants AFL R5 tips


Melbourne Demons vs GWS Giants AFL Betting Odds & Game Info
Best odds	Melbourne $1.16 at BetOnline \| GWS $5.40 at BetOnline
When	Saturday, April 16 \| 7:25pm AEST
Where	MCG, Melbourne
Last time they met	Melbourne 7.13.55 – GWS 9.10.64 (Rd 13, 2021)
Watch live	Seven, Fox Sports, Kayo

Melbourne sit atop the AFL ladder after four rounds and are yet to be fully tested during this campaign. Their approach to winning in 2022 seems at times lazy, like they are happy to cruise in second gear and do just enough. This is ominous for their rivals, as the Demons might just have another gear or two at their disposal. So long as Melbourne keep winning, there is no need for coaching staff to tamper with this strategy.

After an ugly, unconvincing performance in round one, we pegged the GWS Giants as a mid-table prospect at best. Our assessment has not been altered by their subsequent efforts. They come into this game with a lone win over the Suns that was built from a single quarter of dominance. The Giants were expected to push Freo in round four but provided little fight to lose by 34 while kicking a lowly 54 points. Not many games can be won with totals under 60.

So will the Giants provide any resistance, or will they learn a lesson in premiership footy? It’s hard to imagine what might inspire the form reversal required to trouble the unbeaten Demons here, so we must go searching for value. Melbourne might be due for an off night, but this is hardly the basis for a winning gambling method.

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Key matchup: Clayton Oliver vs Tom Green

Clayton Oliver continues to give his midfield opponents headaches with a relentless ball-winning ability that is almost impossible to counter. If he does have an off game, Christian Petracca can assume centre dominance and keep the ball flowing. Young Giants midfielder Tom Green has all the attributes to develop into an elite player. He’s tall, solid, tackles well, and knows how to win the ball. At the tender age of 21 he is still learning his craft, but this game provides the opportunity for Green to test his skills against the best.

Melbourne vs GWS betting strategy

The line is set at around 33.5 points here and that looks about right. The most likely scenario is that the Demons slowly exert their dominance without blowing the Giants off the park. The MCG is tailor made for the free-flowing Melbourne approach, so it’s hard to imagine GWS successfully strangling the scoring here. The total game score is set at around 160.5, but if GWS fail to kick a substantial total, and Melbourne go into cruise mode, this might not be surpassed. We’ll bet the Demons stick with their lazy winning style and back them to get home by 1-39. They sit alone at the top of the ladder, so percentages are of no concern, and there is no incentive for them to go in for the kill. Melbourne 1-39 is paying $2.10 on BetOnline.

Melbourne by 1-39 points

$2.10
@
BetOnline

Melbourne vs GWS same-game multi

For value hunters, we are going for a nice, clean same game multi here. We will couple Melbourne 1-39 into Max Gawn as an anytime goalscorer, paying $4.67 on Ladbrokes. Gawn fancies himself as a goalkicker from almost any range, so we’re hoping he can drift forward, take a grab, and selfishly shoot rather than dish off to a teammate.