Melbourne vs Carlton AFL Rd 22 betting tips – August 13, 2022

Who will prevail in a potentially season-defining contest when Melbourne host Carlton at the MCG this Saturday night in round 22?

Melbourne looked very slick for long periods of their round 21 loss to the miracle-working Magpies. The Demons led by three goals in the third quarter and appeared to have Collingwood safely covered. But few sides can withstand the now-signature Magpie surge, and the Dees were overrun in the shadows of the winning post. Unlike some of their recent losses against the Cats and Bulldogs, Melbourne looked composed, hungry, and fully engaged on the target.

READ: Best AFL betting sites in 2022

Melbourne have struggled to replicate their all-conquering 2021 efforts and will enter the finals lacking in consistent winning form. Time will tell if they can still construct the series of near-perfect performances required to lift the trophy. The coaching personnel would love to see a ruthless performance at this point, a dominant display of aggressive football. With the Blues depleted via injury and suspension, this is a great chance to bully a fellow top-eight opponent.

Carlton were beaten soundly by Brisbane in round 21 and face another Herculean task here. With spiritual leader Patrick Cripps out suspended, and a worrying injury list that includes name such as Matthew Kennedy and George Hewett, the Blues enter this game with their backs against the wall. It’s time to see if they possess true grit.

With a final-round clash against the surging Magpies to come, the Blues are no certainty to play finals this year. Results would need to fall against them, and they are expected to limp into the eight, but a tough late draw will probably see them struggle to mount a serious September challenge.

Key matchup: Clayton Oliver vs Sam Walsh

Melbourne midfielder Clayton Oliver shouldered the ball-winning load against Collingwood, grabbing 42 disposals, a monumental 14 clearances, and landing eight tackles, all with a broken thumb. Oliver also broke plenty of opposition tackles with sheer, brute core strength and will be looking to carve up the depleted Carlton midfield contingent here.

Sam Walsh shapes as the Blues’ most important player for this contest. The absence of Carlton’s superstar captain will see additional responsibility fall on Walsh to lead the centre charge. The 22-year-old has had a stellar year, averaging 32.4 disposals, 4.3 clearances, and 3.3 tackles per game as part of a tight midfield unit. Walsh will have his work cut out here against Oliver, who is in red-hot form.

AFL Melbourne vs Carlton betting strategy

The Demons are predictably short for this contest with the line set at a sizeable 21.5 points. The online bookmakers are expecting a free-scoring contest, despite predictions of showers and frigid Melbourne temperatures. The question that punters need to ponder is: how hard will the Blues fight? They mounted a spirited yet futile comeback against the Lions last round, but will they stay in the fight if the Demons post a big early lead? Who will rally the troops like Cripps normally does? With so many hurdles to overcome, we are forced to bet against Carlton here. Melbourne -21.5 is the tip.

Melbourne vs Carlton Rd 22 same game multi tips

For the value hunters, we will be linking our main tip with some likely same-game exotics. We will be backing Melbourne -21.5, into Bayley Fritsch 2+ goals, into Kysaiah Pickett 2+ goals, into Christian Petracca 25+ disposals. This ambitious combo will return $4.69 courtesy of Ladbrokes.

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