Melbourne v Western Bulldogs AFL R1 best bets – March 18, 2023

Premiership aspirants Melbourne and the Western Bulldogs square off this Saturday night in a round one game that should set the MCG alight.

Both teams will be striving to build on solid pre-seasons, and we are expecting a goal-fest on a warm Melbourne evening in front of a packed house.

The Demons came up slightly short in 2022 and will be looking to make a statement of intent with a strong opening performance, while the Bulldogs will embrace their underdog status and look to spoil the party.

Melbourne looked ominous in their practice match when posting a 50-point win over the Tigers. Most pleasing was the ruck partnership between Max Gawn and Brodie Grundy that yielded six goals and 17 contested possessions.

READ: Best bookmakers for AFL betting in 2023

Stacking a side with too many talls can be a trap, but the Demons look to have struck an effective combination of big men and nimble ground-level specialists.

With Gawn winning tap outs or possessions in the middle and Grundy lurking upfield ready to grab a hanger in front of goal, Melbourne have simplified their gameplan to its essentials.

The Western Bulldogs also enjoyed a solid warm-up, albeit against inferior opposition. The Dogs were too strong for North Melbourne and recorded a 58-point win at IKON Park.

Their contested-ball effort was too much for the Kangaroos and the clearance wins were translated to the scoreboard for a steady stream of goals across four quarters. This was assisted by some pinpoint accuracy in front of the big sticks – especially from Aaron Naughton, who slotted 4.0.

Key matchup: Brudy Grundy v Tim English

After being abruptly discarded by Collingwood last year, Brodie Grundy might have a point to prove. He will need to broaden his skill set to slot into a stacked Demons line-up and familiarise himself with a new gameplan, but the athletic and cerebral Grundy should be able to master the reinvention. Grundy averages 16.8 disposals per game across his career, and this number should grow with the Melbourne powerhouse midfield to rely on. He may prove to be the missing piece that lifts the Demons to premiership glory.

Bulldog ruckman Tim English will have his hands full against the dynamic Melbourne duo in the middle. He made huge strides in 2022 and is expected to graduate to elite status in the coming years. English averaged 18.1 disposals and 4.2 clearances last year to go alongside his improving tapwork, and he is agile for a 207cm giant. His mobility will be tested in this matchup and he needs to produce a huge effort to break even and give his team a shot at victory.

Melbourne v Western Bulldogs AFL Rd 1 match prediction

Melbourne go in as warm favourites, as might be expected with the line set at a moderate 8.5 points by most online bookmakers. With both teams kicking big totals in the pre-season, this might be a high-scoring affair. The Dogs are known for favouring an attacking approach and Melbourne are blessed with a potent midfield group that can kick goals, so over 168.5 points might be our best bet in this contest.

Melbourne v Western Bulldogs same game multi tips

For those looking to wring additional value from this contest, we suggest linking over 168.5 points with Aaron Naughton for two or more goals and Jamarra Ugle-Hagan to kick a major at any time. This combination will return $3.49 with BetOnline.

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