Melbourne v Brisbane AFL R5 tips, odds & predictions | 11/4/2024

Demons v Lions R5 best bets

Round 5, 2024: Melbourne v Brisbane match preview

Kicking off round five of the 2024 AFL Premiership season, the Melbourne Demons host the Brisbane Lions at the MCG on Thursday night.

The Demons continued their winning form last Thursday night as they comfortably dealt with the Adelaide Crows by 15 points. That margin didn’t really reflect the game, as Craig Goodwin’s were excellent defensively and their inaccuracy was their own worst enemy.

After their first-round loss, the Demons have been very impressive while winning four matches in a row — including the past two on the road in Adelaide.

Back at home this weekend, there is only one forced change for the Melbourne Demons with small forward Kysaiah Pickett ruled out through suspension. The likely inclusion is 21-year-old Taj Woewodin, who has been the substitute for the past two weeks.

The Lions finally secured their first win of the season last Saturday as they demolished North Melbourne by 70 points. Playing at Norwood Oval, Brisbane got the early jump and never looked back, extending the lead throughout the game as key forward Joe Daniher starred with 5.4.

Despite injury concerns against the Roos, the Lions have good news with both Lachie Neale and Zac Bailey available for this week’s game.

Melbourne Demons v Brisbane Lions betting strategy

Having won just two of their past 20 matches at the MCG, the Brisbane Lions come into this match as clear underdogs. The Demons have an average winning margin of 50 points at the ground this year, and given the struggles of the Lions forward line besides Daniher, expect Melbourne’s defence to continue its strong form. The Demons should do enough at home to cover the -15.5 handicap at -111.11 with top AFL betting sites.

Second in the Coleman Medal race right now, Melbourne forward Bayley Fritsch has enjoyed an excellent start to the season with 14 goals in five games. With Pickett missing, expect him to have even more opportunities inside 50. Playing tall and small, Fritsch is a nightmare matchup for almost every team, so back him in for three or more goals at +155 with Bet365.

After a slow start to the season, Brisbane’s Hugh McCluggage has found form with 29 and 36 disposals in his past two weeks. Leading the team for disposals, McCluggage has impressed with added midfield time as he combines inside work with the outside run he is known for. With Neale playing through injury, expect McCluggage to stand up once again with 30 or more disposals at +260 with top online bookmakers.

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