Melbourne v Adelaide AFL betting tips – Round 19, 2023

Melbourne v Adelaide best bets

Melbourne v Adelaide R19 match preview

On Sunday afternoon, the Adelaide Crows travel to Melbourne to take on the Demons at the MCG. The Crows are trying to salvage their 2023 AFL season, while the Demons are looking strengthen their position in the top eight.

Last weekend, the Demons played in one of the games of the season as they defeated the Brisbane Lions by one point. A game of momentum swings, both sides went on dominant runs throughout the match. Trailing by 26 points halfway through the final term, the match seemed over, before a late run of goals saw them find a way to come back and win.

The Crows hosted the GWS Giants last weekend going down by 14 points in a disappointing showing. A tense game, the Crows lead at each change up until three-quarter time but were unable to put the game away. Leading by 17 points at three-quarter time, the Crows conceded 6.2 to their single point as they fell apart in the last term.

Losing four of their last six, with their only wins coming against the bottom two placed teams in the AFL, the Crows have lost all form that they showed early in the season, proving they still need a lot of improvement to challenge the top teams.

For the Demons, key defender Harrison Petty will miss this match due to a rib injury, welcoming Adam Tomlinson back into the side following his good form in the VFL.

The Crows will be without star pairing Josh Rachele and Rory Laird, who miss with suspension and injury respectively. Matt Crouch is expected to come in for his first full game of the season after impressing in the SANFL.

Melbourne v Adelaide AFL betting predictions

The away form of the Crows this season has been a key reason behind their position of 12th on the ladder. Only one of their eight wins has come away from Adelaide Oval, which doesn’t present well against a Demons side that is strong at home.

At $1.30 with top AFL bookmakers, the Demons don’t seem to show enough value in a game where they expected to win comfortably. As such, we like the Demons at the line of -21.5 at $1.90.

Coming off a three-goal effort last week, Demons small forward Kysaiah Pickett has found some form at the right end of the season. Coming up against an Adelaide defence who has struggled against elite small forwards this year, Pickett looks set for another big day. Using his acceleration and agility, expect him to make his own opportunities in the forward line. We like him for two or more goals in this one at $1.65 with BetOnline.

In the absence of Rory Laird, expect fellow midfielder Ben Keays to stand up in his absence. Averaging over 25 disposals since his move into the midfield in round 11, Keays has shown his importance through his two-way running in the middle of the ground. Willing to get the hard ball, we like Keays in this one to step up for the Crows and collect 25 or more disposals at $1.63.

Demons v Crows key matchup: Gawn v O’Brien

Max Gawn vs Reilly O’Brien

Coming off 29 disposals, 39 hitouts and a goal last weekend, Max Gawn has taken back his spot as the single ruck for the Demons as Brodie Grundy was sent to the VFL. One of the best in the competition, the Melbourne captain will be looking forward to another ruck battle as he takes on one of the best hitout ruckmen in the competition.

Reilly O’Brien has been one of Adelaide’s best this season and a major reason why they are one of the top clearance teams in the competition. In this battle he will be looking to beat Gawn in the middle, whilst trying to neutralise his impact around the ground. Without Laird in the middle, his impact will be particularly important against the top quality Melbourne midfield.

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