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Is the MRP too soft on Brownlow contenders?

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AFL Market Movers 2017
THERE is plenty to talk about in the footy world after a weekend that threatened to throw AFL futures markets into meltdown.

Punters nationwide held their collective breath when Patrick Dangerfield went down injured in the first quarter of Geelong’s clash with Hawthorn on Saturday.

The superstar midfielder bounced back to kick five goals in a match-winning performance at full forward, but not before some notable fluctuations in the betting for the Brownlow Medal.

Online wagering exchange Betfair reported a huge shift in Dangerfield’s outright price, which blew out as far as +440 as news of his injury did the rounds.

The market has settled again after the 2016 winner scotched any concerns of a long-term problem with his clownish display for the press on Monday.

While Dangerfield could play this weekend, there are those who feel his main rival for the Brownlow should not have the opportunity.

Dustin Martin was cited by the Match Review Panel over two separate incidents from Richmond’s win over the Brisbane Lions.

One was a late hit on Lewis Taylor; the other, high contact in an off-the-ball clash with Nick Robertson.

Despite being found at fault in both cases, the 26-year-old midfielder escaped with $2500 in fines and no suspension.

That means he is still eligible for the Brownlow – a point that was not lost on certain sections of the football media.

The bluntest appraisal of the situation came from Wayne Carey.

“I tell you what the MRP don’t want — they don’t want Dustin Martin or Dangerfield or any of the other Brownlow favourites to miss a game for an incident like that,” the Talking Footy panellist said on Monday night.

“If you’re telling me otherwise, you’re kidding yourself.”

Herald Sun journalist and haircut enthusiast Sam McClure expressed disbelief at Carey’s allegations of such blatant corruption, but the two-time AFL Premiership winner would not be turned around.

He added: “I can tell you first-hand, even before the MRP was the MRP, I’m talking about tribunal days — it has always been lenient towards the better the players in the competition and those who are favourites for the Brownlow Medal.”

Compare the pair

Another citation in the remaining six weeks of the home and away season would almost certainly see Martin rubbed out.

But why should a contender in the Brownlow betting get a slap on the wrist and a warning where other players do not?

In Martin’s case, one does not have to look far to find an example of how status can affect an MRP ruling.

The player he struck (or didn’t, according to the authorities) was his direct opponent, Robertson.

The combative young Lion was brought up on two charges of his own from that match, and you might be shocked to learn that he was not quite so lucky as the man who swiped him in the face.

A flicker of a headbutt on Tigers captain Trent Cotchin was deemed dangerous and mean-spirited enough to earn Robertson a one-match ban.

Even soccer fans would call that soft, but that is not the point.

Compare the cases and ask yourself: what would have happened if Robertson had hit Martin, and not the other way around?

Why the AFL wants to protect its assets

As much as it pains us to side with such an ordinary bloke, Carey’s assertions are bang on the money.

It all works out far too conveniently for the AFL.

After Dangerfield dominated the 2016 Brownlow voting, the last thing league officials want is another uncompetitive count.

As most online bookmakers have this year’s vote pegged as a two-horse race, Martin becoming ineligible would cause problems on a number of fronts.

For one, it would make it tough to drum up public interest in Brownlow night – an overblown waste of resources and airwaves at the best of times.

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Take out one of the star attractions, and the punters at home might begin to ponder the point of an expensive gala dedicated to ego stroking, awkward interviews and a useless accolade awarded by the same people whose judgement and sanity are questioned on a weekly basis.

Such a state of affairs would also have a heavy impact on the gambling industry.

With Martin out, most of the Brownlow money – and there is always a lot of it – would shift to Dangerfield and kill the market.

Bookmakers do not want a repeat of last year, when the outcome was so obvious they had to suspend betting and dish up millions of dollars in early payouts.

When you consider the amount of cash online bookies pump into the AFL, is it really that much of a leap to suggest the league might have one eye on protecting the interests of its corporate partners?

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