Free tips, bookie odds & betting specials for UFC 209

THE original Woodley vs. Thompson bout at UFC 205 was one of the standouts of the entire 2016 Ultimate Fighting Championship season.

We have the rematch, but we will we get a repeat?

It might not even be the most anticipated fight on the card.

Nurmagomodeov and Ferguson is shaping up as a cracker, while Antipodean hopes Mark Hunt, Daniel Kelly and Tyson Pedro are also in action at T-Mobile Arena.

Here are our tips for the entire card in Las Vegas this Sunday (Australian time), with fight odds and bet specials from our most trusted online bookmakers.

UFC 209 undercard betting

Prelim fights from 10:30am AEDT

Albert Morales vs. Andre Soukhamthath

Morales has had a tough start in UFC, drawing with Alejandro Perez first up before suffering a second-round knockout against Thomas Almeida. This will be Soukhamthath’s first bout at this level, but he comes in off three consecutive knockout wins. Both are sweet strikers with flawed defences, which is why some are calling this a sneaky contender for Fight of the Night.

Our pick: Soukhamthath to win (+139 at Sportsbet)

Amanda Cooper vs. Cynthia Calvillo

More than a few pundits expected Cooper to struggle against Anna Elmose at UFC Fight Night 99, but the strawweight battled back from a first-round knockdown in Belfast to take the fight by unanimous decision. And while Calvillo has the two-way wrestling game to trouble the former Ultimate Fighter finalist, she might not have the striking power.

Our pick: Cooper to win (-117.65 at CrownBet)

Tyson Pedro vs. Paul Craig

‘Bearjew’ did not disappoint on his UFC debut in December 2016, extending his MMA career record to 9-0 and taking the Performance of the Night bonus with a second-round submission win over Luis Henrique. Yet most online bookies have Pedro as a slender favourite after his first-up win over Khalil Roundtree. Craig has the experience and a well-organised ground game, but why not back the up-and-coming Aussie?

Our pick: Pedro to win (-111.11 at Bet365)

Mark Godbeer vs. Daniel Spitz

UFC first-timer Spitz steps in for Todd Duffee, who withdrew late as he continues to work back from a lengthy layoff. The newcomer is a man mountain at six feet, seven inches, yet his more experienced opponent is expected to have the edge in raw strength. Whomever gains top position on the ground should walk away with this one.

Our pick: Godbeer to win (-142.86 at CrownBet)

Iuri Alcantara vs. Luke Sanders

A veteran of the UFC bantamweight circuit, Alcantara is as consistent and well-rounded as they come. Sanders is an altogether more enigmatic prospect, unsighted in the octagon since his submission win over Maximo Blanco on debut in January 2016. It is an extremely tight market and very tough to call, so either go with your gut or bet on a different fight altogether.

Our pick: Sanders to win (+100 at Bet365)

Mirsad Bektic vs. Darren Elkins

These fighters are both very good in the clinches, so most observers are tipping a highly tactical wrestling match. Given the closeness of their skill set, however, it could come down to which is the better hitter. Both have five KO/TKO results under their respective belts, but Bektic’s ratio (five from 11) is far higher than that of Elkins (five from 21).

Our pick: Bektic to win (-588.24 at Ladbrokes)

Marcin Tybura vs. Luis Henrique

These two were slated to meet at UFC 208, but an eye problem forced Henrique off the card. The young Brazilian heavyweight won both his fights in 2016, choking out both Dmitry Smoliakov (rear-naked) and Christian Colombo (guillotine). Tybura bounced back from his debut defeat to Timothy Johnson in April to KO Viktor Pesta in August with a thunderous headshot. The bookies prefer the Pole and so do we.

Our pick: Tybura to win (-142.86 at CrownBet)

Alistair Overeem vs. Mark Hunt

Overeem – -142.86 at Sportsbet
Hunt – +125 at Ladbrokes

The UFC 209 main card kicks off with two of the division’s heaviest hitters.

The year 2016 was mixed one for Overeem, who notched his fourth straight win before going down to Stipe Miocic at UFC 203 in September. All three of the Dutchman’s losses at this level have come via knockouts involving front-on punching attacks, so you can bet Hunt will be targeting the chin.

That said, it is difficult tell whether the ‘Super Samoan’ is up for the fight at all. He presently embroiled in a legal battle with the UFC and, according to all reports, only took this gig out of contractual obligation.

It is hard to get a read on Hunt’s form when his last fight was against a roided-up Brock Lesnar. He might give up some speed to Overeem, but it is a tight call on paper and the value is with the Kiwi heavyweight.

Our pick: Hunt by KO or TKO (+175 at Bet365)

Lando Vannata vs. David Teymur

Vannata – -250 at Ladbrokes
Teymur – +210 at CrownBet

If nothing else, this one should be fun to watch.

Vannata announced himself last July with a very promising display on his maiden UFC appearance, causing Tony Ferguson some real issues before submitting to a brabo choke in the second round. The 24-year-old American won is serious style second time out, flooring John Makdessi with a spectacular spinning kick at UFC 206.

Teymur is also a noted striker who has weapons at the end of every limb. The Swede has won both his UFC bouts to date, defeating his compatriot Martin Svensson at Fight Night 84 and dispatching Jason Novelli at Fight Night 92.

If this is as open and entertaining as we expect it to be, a Fight of the Night gong would be no surprise. The result, however, should go the all-round superior Vannata.

Our pick: Over 1.5 rounds (-200 at Sportsbet)

Rashad Evans vs. Daniel Kelly

Evans – -227.27 at Bet365
Kelly – +195 at CrownBet

When you dig into the form and figures, it is a little surprising the odds are quite so broad on this light heavyweight bout.

Evans has done sweet FA over the past three years. Injuries and the passage of time have robbed the New Yorker of his signature speed and agility, as was painfully evident in his first-round defeat to Glover Texeira last time out. Now he drops down a weight division in the hope his power advantage will compensate for a lack of sharpness.

Kelly, at 39, might just now be approaching his peak. The Melburnian, who represented Australia in judo at four Olympiads, has won each of his last three fights. Since stepping up to UFC grade in 2014, he has lost only once.

Nevertheless, Evans is the hot favourite and should regain some sort of momentum against a fighter who is yet to face opposition of this calibre.

Our pick: Under 2.5 rounds (+120 at Bet365)

Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Tony Ferguson

Nurmagomedov – -175.44 at Bet365
Ferguson – +155 at Ladbrokes

These two have talked the talk, but can they walk the walk?

Undefeated Nurmagomedov now has 24 career wins to his name, the last nine of which have come since joining the UFC. A clinical grinder with a massive engine, the Russian boasts one of the strongest takedown games around and deals heavily in decisions and submissions.

His opponent is no mug either. Ferguson is now undefeated in nine fights and has lost only once since stepping up to the franchise in 2011. He is a better striker than Nurmagomedov, but can he match the favourite’s athleticism and wrestling prowess?

Whatever the result, this is a match-up worthy of the interim lightweight belt. We like ‘The Eagle’ to make it 25 on the bounce.

Our pick: Nurmagomedov by decision (+130 at Ladbrokes)

Tyron Woodley vs. Stephen Thompson

Woodley – +137 at Bet365
Thompson – -153.85 at CrownBet

The judges could not split these two at UFC 205 last November in what was widely touted as the best fight of 2016.

Yet punters have drifted away from Woodley. The current holder of the UFC welterweight belt has not lost since 2014 and has the upper hand in the power department with hard fists, strong grappling and a big tank.

But Thompson has the edge elsewhere. Quick on his feet and technically tight, the 34-year-old Californian in now unbeaten in eight UFC fights. He carries a wonderful range of offensive weaponry and will look to keep Woodley guessing from start to finish.

It should be another belter. The third judge had Woodley up by a single, stray point last time, but Thompson is the tip to edge it this weekend in Vegas.

Our pick: Thompson by decision (+300 at Bet365)

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