Essendon vs Carlton AFL betting tips & top odds – Round 13

Essendon and Carlton administrators probably entered the 2022 season with similar expectation – to win more games than they lose and to try compete for 7th or 8th spot. This script has not played out for the Bombers, who languish in 16th spot on the ladder with a record of 2-9.

We had a close look at the Bomber’s stats for the season and the number that jumped off the page was their average tackle count. Essendon players complete the lowest number of tackles of any AFL side according to our numbers. While everyone loves to watch attacking footy, this approach is unsustainable without a solid defence. Laying tackles might be hard work, but the best teams win games by turning over the ball via relentless pressure.

Despite also having an attacking mindset, Carlton rank significantly higher on the tackle numbers than the Bombers. They are also a much higher disposal side – in fact the Blues are the highest disposal team in the comp.

High disposal football falls apart when the heat is cranked up and every handball receive is met with instant tackling pressure. Without sufficient heat the Blues can just turn this fixture into a game of piggy in the middle. The Blues also significantly outrank Essendon on the vital inside 50s stat and should win this game.

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Key matchup: Sam Draper v Tom De Koning

Our mid-season statistical deep dive revealed that the Bombers win a lot more hit outs than the Blues. Regular readers will recall our admiration for Essendon ruck Sam Draper, who may develop into an elite big man with the right coaching and a bit of luck. The 23-year-old has all the skills necessary to scale the heights and is set for a bold showing here.

The Blues have several young ruck prospects on their list, but if there was an obvious recruitment hole that they need to fill it would be an experienced hit-out man. 22-year-old Tom De Koning has played 10 games this year and returned only average numbers. Their ruck deficiencies are negated by the likes of Patrick Cripps who win the centre ball regardless of the tap-out action. Our key match up here is a pair of young rucks, almost identical in height and age.

Essendon vs Carlton betting strategy

The Blues are not prohibitive favourites here and the early line has been set at a manageable 17.5 points. The game has an almost derby feel to it and that might suggest a competitive contest despite the difference in ladder positions. We are sticking with the Blues to cover the line here. Their best football is vastly superior to what the Bombers have been delivering, and long as the Blues start well, they should have too many guns.

Essendon v Carlton AFL same-game multi tips

For the value-hunters we will link the Blues at the line with some likely goalkickers. Carlton -17.5, into Charlie Curnow 2+ goals, into Sam Walsh anytime goal kicker. This triple header will return a handsome $4.14 courtesy of Ladbrokes. Curnow has been running hot, and we would love to see Walsh drift forward and hit the scoreboard.

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