England v Samoa RLWC semi-final tips, odds & value bets

One of the biggest storylines in the 2022 Rugby League World Cup will come to a boil Sunday (1:30am AEDT) when host nation England take on Samoa in a semi-final at Emirates Stadium in London.

These two nations met in round one of this competition, when England put rival nations on notice by belting Samoa in the only major upset of the World Cup. Will Samoa be able to bounce back and knock out the hosts out in order to advance to their first World Cup final?

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England have made just one change to their starting side following their win over Papua New Guinea, with front-row enforcer Luke Thompson coming onto the bench to replace Matty Lees. For Samoa, Fa’amanu Brown comes into the starting side at hooker in place of Danny Levi.

England come into this match as short favourites, and rightfully so, given both their form compared to Samoa’s this World Cup and the home-field advantage. Samoa have all the talent in the world on paper but are hardly a betting prospect given the reasons outlined. England should go on to win this match in similar fashion to their earlier meeting, beating Samoa by 13+ points ($2.35 at Marantelli Bet).

Dom Young has been an absolute standout for England in attack, having been the leading tryscorer for a majority of the World Cup. Young keeps his right-wing spot and will be matching up against Brian To’o, who is a liability when marking up against taller wingers. England’s plans will be centred around Young being the target of high kicks and cut-out passes over the top of To’o, and that should see the Newcastle Knights flyer find the try line at some stage.

Jack Welsby is another man to watch for England, especially if the scoreline ends up similar to the round one match between these two nations. Welsby can score from structured play but is a lot more effective in his support play, where he scores a lot of his tries. Should this be another blowout match, Welsby will find his way to the in-goal area.

This is shaping up to be another high-scoring match. Even if the margin is not as large as last time they met, Samoa will be able to put points on the board and push the English. Clear weather is predicted for London this weekend, which will make scoring points much easier, and that will surely push this match over the 38.5 total points line.

Key matchup: Sam Tomkins vs Joseph Suaalii

The matchup of these two fullbacks will be brilliant to watch as they play very different roles in their respective sides. Joseph Suaalii, as he has displayed in the NRL this season, is an absolute wrecking ball when returning kicks and taking the ball out the back of attacking shapes. Suaalii will be in the spotlight of officials for raising his knee when he meets defenders, which could be something of a distraction for the young fullback. Sam Tompkins, on the other hand, will continue be the type of fullback who facilitates attack for his outside backs and helps his halves in managing the game. Should Suaalii find issues with his running technique, Tomkins will target Suaalii more to take advantage for England and put them on the front foot.

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