Dragons vs Warriors NRL Round 6 betting tips – Sunday, April 18

The St George Illawarra Dragons head into round six of the NRL Premiership looking for a fifth straight win as they take on the New Zealand Warriors at Netstrata Jubilee Stadium on Sunday afternoon.

The Saints have been the competition’s surprise packet in the early rounds, and few punters would have expected to see them as the $1.45 favourite if they were looking at this fixture a month ago.

The NZ Warriors have lost their last two in a row and take on an opponent they’ve had the least success against over the past 20 years, contributing to their $2.75 underdog price. To find a Warriors team that has won at Kogarah, you have to go all the way back to 2003, so if hoodoos and where teams play come into your thinking when tipping a winner, it doesn’t bode well for New Zealand.

The Dragons’ latest recruit, Josh McGuire, has been named in the extended squad after joining the squad from the Cowboys earlier in the week, and the hot tip is he will find his way onto the bench to make his club debut.

Dragons vs Warriors match analysis

By now we’ve seen enough of the Saints to know their three-headed monster is Dufty, Lomax and Ravalawa. The right side is where the bulk of their strike in the back line exists, and all three haven’t crossed in a number of weeks now, so that combo could be fun to get back on. The form of Tariq Sims is impossible to ignore on the left edge, and the $4.20 you can get for him to cross the try line will see punters throwing plenty of cash at the former Gerringong junior.

For those who like getting on the total points market, it’s the week to take the over 42.5 line. Eight of the Dragons’ last nine games at Netstrata Jubilee Stadium have gone over the line, so remember that when you’re building a multi.

Apart from a stirring second-half comeback against a depleted Raiders side, the Warriors have struggled to score points in 2021. Adam Pompey is their current leading tryscorer and only has three to his name, while Ken Maumalo is next with two. Those two names are probably who many will look to, but it might be the week to consider Roger Tuivasa-Sheck at $2.88.

The big outsider we love to crash over from close range is Ben Murdoch-Masila at $10 with top NRL bookmakers. He is enjoying a sensational return to the NRL, and last round the Dragons gave up a try from close range to Isaiah Papali’i, so let’s hope Murdoch-Masila can help us out.

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Key matchup: Matt Dufty vs Roger Tuivasa-Sheck

Friday night has the premier fullback matchup of the round, but we shouldn’t be sleeping on Roger Tuivasa-Sheck and Matt Dufty. Both are hugely important to their teams and play completely different games. Dufty’s ball-playing over the last 18 months has improved out of sight and complements his speed nicely, while Tuivasa-Sheck has become a star based on his work ethic out of his own end with the occasional touch of brilliance.

Without Addin Fonua-Blake, RTS is missing a key player who creates momentum for his team, so how does he find chinks in the Dragons defence? Dufty’s combination with Zac Lomax is well established, and Mikaele Ravalawa is starting to get on the end of it too, so how do the Warriors shut down the Dragons’ right edge? You can get $5.50 for both fullbacks to score at any time, and stranger things have happened.

Dragons vs Warriors betting predictions

St George Illawarra Dragons to win by 13+ points

We think the Dragons will win their fifth game in a row, and we love them at the $2.80 price for the 13+ margin. They are playing with a great deal of fluency, while the Warriors are still struggling to nail down key combinations.

Same game multi: 3 legs @ $11.75

Dragons 13+ with Mikaele Ravalawa and Tariq Sims to both score can get you $11.75 with Sportsbet.