Crown Oaks runner by runner guide and odds comparison

November 2, 2016 4:17 pm.by Daryl Curnow

VRC Oaks betting
THE Group 1 VRC Oaks is the premier staying race for three-year-old fillies and we have a full runner-by-runner betting guide complete with form, odds and free tips.

The Oaks is run this Thursday at Flemington for $1 million and there has been plenty of interest in the betting market, in particular with one runner.

Yankee Rose is what the public will come to see on Thursday and there have been some big bets placed on the classy filly, but the field of 15 all have a chance of winning and we have sorted out our best win and each way bets.

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Crown Oaks odds comparison

There hasn’t been much action in the last few days on the Oaks, as Yankee Rose is the dominating $1.65 favourite at Sportsbet.

Eleonora has shortened to a single-figure quote after its win in the Ethereal Stakes and the only other runner to attract support in the market is Harlow Gold at $8.

Crown Oaks betting guide and tips

1. Yankee Rose – $1.65

Trainer: David Vandyke
Jockey: Blake Shinn
Form: 1×6212
Barrier: 13

Yankee Rose is the odds-on favourite and for good reason. The All American filly has had an incredible campaign which featured a Group 1 Spring Champion Stakes win at Randwick.

Arguably its best effort came last start when it finished third in the Group 1 Cox Plate behind champion mare Winx and 2016 Melbourne Cup favourite Hartnell. That run came at weight-for-age level where it carried 47.5kg, but this race is a much easier target.

It looks destined to become a top quality staying type and the rise up to 2500m is ideal. Don’t worry about the barrier draw of 13 as it will likely settle back and use its superior turn-of-foot to reel them in down the Flemington straight.

$1.65 at Sportsbet is short, but it appears as though only bad luck would stop it.

2. Missrock – $13

Trainer: Robbie Laing
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Form: 1×6673
Barrier: 3

Trainer Robbie Laing has steadily increased Missrock up in distance this campaign and its best effort came when finishing third in the Wakeful Stakes behind Tiamo Grace.

The Fastnet Rock filly has largely been disappointing this campaign, but Laing knows how to train distance runners and having Hugh Bowman in the saddle is a big asset.

It has placed twice at Flemington and it is drawn to get a soft trip in transit. The $13 for the win is about the right price for its ability and the $3.10 to finish top three is worth the risk.

3. Sebring Dream – $11

Trainer: David and Ben Hayes/Tom Dabernig
Jockey: James McDonald
Form: 55652
Barrier: 14

Sebring Dream was gallant in defeat when running second in the Wakeful Stakes and punters should be confident that it can run the 2500m distance.

The daughter of Sebring finishing off strongly over 2000m in the Ethereal Stakes when it ran fifth behind race-rival Eleonora and its subsequent run at Flemington was full of merit.

It has been up for awhile now and that’s the worry, but it has fitness on its side and it hasn’t finished worse than third in three starts at Flemington.

It has drifted from $10 to $11 in the betting, but it looms as a strong each way chance.

4. Moqueen – $15

Trainer: Anthony Cummings
Jockey: Jason Collett
Form: 543514
Barrier: 5

The daughter of Uncle Mo has won only one race from nine starts, but it shouldn’t be discounted at double-figure odds in this.

It broke maiden grades by winning the Dulcify Stakes at Randwick in fine style and it wasn’t disgraced when fourth in the Ethereal Stakes last start. That should be one of the best form guides into the Oaks and the staying distances could be its calling.

It drops down in weight to 55.5kg and jockey Jason Collett has been riding in career-best form which makes Moqueen a winning chance.

Its current odds of $15 will likely shorten if the track dries out.

5. Eleonora – $9

Trainer: Murray Baker and Andrew Forsman
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Form: 2×2101
Barrier: 10

Murray Baker continued his great success in Australia when winning the Ethereal Stakes with Eleonoro last month.

The Makfi three-year-old came over from Australia with solid form which included a second placing in the Champagne Stakes behind Astara – which subsequently set a track record when winning at Ellerslie.

It won its maiden at Geelong with ease and it had no luck in the Edward Manifold when finishing 11th behind Serenely Discreet. It showed its class when winning last start and we believe it could be the upset hope at a nice each way price.

Eleonora has the ability to sit just off the speed and produce with a run. If it can hit the lead before Yankee Rose warms up, we could see a tooth and nail fight over the final 200 metres.

We’re confident it can run in the placings so take the $2.30 on offer at Sportsbet.

6. Smart As You Think – $15

Trainer: John McArdle
Jockey: Jamie Mott
Form: 3×5231
Barrier: 15

This well-named filly was as smart as they thought last time out when winning at Moonee Valley.

The daughter of So You Think scored an impressive win over Tears Of Joy in a $100,000 handicap and it has been set nicely for the Crown Oaks on Thursday.

Its form prior included a third placing behind Throssell in the Anzac Day Stakes on this track and that form has stacked up well throughout the spring carnival. It then finished second in the Morphettville Guineas and that form warrants attention here.

It has the breeding to suggest it could win the Oaks and it will look likely at one stage during the run.

7. Harlow Gold – $8

Trainer: David and Ben Hayes/Tom Dabernig
Jockey: Regan Bayliss
Form: 61156
Barrier: 2

Harlow Gold has many things in its favour heading into the Oaks. It is bred to run the distance, being by Tavistock, and it has beaten some nice types this campaign.

It won its maiden race by four lengths before winning at Caulfield by 1.25 lengths over the well-performed Rocketeer which has since run very well in big races this carnival.

It didn’t have the best of luck in the Group 1 Thousand Guineas when it was trapped along the inside. Its most recent effort at Moonee Valley should be overlooked as it didn’t handle the tight-turning track.

Flemington is the ideal track for Harlow Gold which needs time to warm up and the 2500m will suit perfectly.

Has attracted support at $8 with WilliamHill and it should figure in the finish.

8. Bella Sorellastra – $34

Trainer: Morgan/Widdison
Jockey: Stephen Baster
Form: 351260
Barrier: 1

This Lope de Vega filly won well four starts back before producing its career-best run when second in the Edward Manifold Stakes at Flemington.

It followed that up with a sixth-place finish in the Ethereal where it was working home well after settling back throughout the run and although it didn’t fire in the Wakeful Stakes last start, it could rebound and perform well here.

It lead all the way when winning at Sale in September and we might see similar tactics for this.

9. Peeking Duck – $71

Trainer: Trent Pennuto
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Form: 1×2801
Barrier: 11

Peeking Duck is twice a winner from six starts, but we question how strong that form is. It won its maiden race at Cranbourne, but when it stepped up in grade at Caulfield it finished a disappointing eighth behind Exocet.

It didn’t have much luck on that occasion, but its run for 14th in the Edward Manifold wasn’t a great guide for the Oaks. It has since won in rating 64 grade at Cranbourne, but it might be a Cranbourne track specialist and it’s not worth the risk at big odds.

10. Lamma Hilton – $101

Trainer: Anthony Cummings
Jockey: Glyn Schofield
Form: 274160
Barrier: 7

Lamma Hilton is a one-win filly which only broke maiden grades three starts back. That win came at Hawkesbury over 2000m and it followed that up with a run at 2400m at Warwick Farm.

It wasn’t able to feature on that occasion, but it did run on well which suggested the extreme staying distances would be its go.

Unlikely to figure against a talented field, but it has first four claims with some luck and a hot tempo up front.

11. Lasqueti Spirit – $151

Trainer: Lee Curtis
Jockey: Brenton Avdulla
Form: 653824
Barrier: 9

Hasn’t won a race from nine attempts and its best effort came when second behind $101 chance Lamma Hilton.

It lined up in the Gloaming Stakes earlier this preparation which was a stab at the big time, but it finished eighth and we’re expecting a similar result here.

12. Nina Peak – $251

Trainer: Robbie Laing
Jockey: Michael Dee
Form: 7×5710
Barrier: 6

Nina Peak has been backed into $251 after opening at $301. It’s not exactly a big betting plunge, but it has attracted some support which is encouraging.

It is trained by prominent staying trainer Robbie Laing, which is a positive, and the 2500m will likely suit much more than the shorter distances.

The daughter of Hinchinbrook isn’t bred to run over this distance, but it hasn’t been performing well enough at the middle distances so Laing is having a throw at the stumps.

Looks well held in this, but it could be a potential in-play betting option at WilliamHill.com.au.

13. My Girl Chilly – $51

Trainer: Jarrod McLean
Jockey: Dean Yendall
Form: 7×5710
Barrier: 8

Scored its maiden win by 2.5 lengths two starts back at Donald, but it didn’t follow that up with a good run in the Wakeful Stakes last start.

It ran fifth behind Eleonora at Geelong in maiden grades and its best asset is having Dean Yendall in the saddle. He has recently ridden two Group one winners, including Yankee Rose, and he might have the magic touch at the moment.

Opened at $41 and has drifted out to $51.

14. Red Velvet Swing – $151

Trainer: Danny O’Brien
Jockey: Katelyn Mallyon
Form: 925902
Barrier: 4

Filly by Star Witness which has had eight starts for two placings. The Danny O’Brien-trained runner finished second behind Anaheim at Ballarat last start, but it hasn’t been able to make any progression this campaign and its odds reflect its winning hopes.

Expect Mallyon to send it forward and set a strong tempo.

15. Penthouse Kitten – $251

Trainer: Francis Finnegan
Jockey: Michael Walker
Form: 230
Barrier: 12

Finished 7.8 lengths behind Tiamo Grace in the Wakeful Stakes and despite being by Pentire and quality New Zealand mare Scattercat, we can’t find any reason to part with our money on this runner.

VRC Oaks betting tips

1st – Yankee Rose
2nd – Eleonora
3rd – Harlow Gold

We’re sticking with the favourites for the feature at Flemington at Thursday. Yankee Rose is the clear top choice at $1.65 and we can’t see if getting beaten.

Eleonora and Harlow Gold are both top each way chances and have the ability to upset Yankee Rose, but we prefer to back them to place.

The top eight runners all have a shot at winning, but we would be surprised to see runners 9-15 figure in the placings.