Collingwood vs Fremantle AFL semi final tips & odds – 10/9/2022

Who will progress when interstate rivals Collingwood and Fremantle collide at the MCG this Saturday in a semi-final eliminator?

We have doubted the Magpies in recent weeks, pointing to their apparent good fortune, but their performance against the Cats in the first week of the 2022 AFL finals has forced an urgent reassessment. Collingwood played exceptional football and would now be flag favourites had they won a few late coinflips and beaten Geelong. The Pies opened the first quarter in blistering fashion and had the Cats pinned in their defensive zone for lengthy periods. Geelong could not match Collingwood’s early intensity, and footy fans were sitting bolt upright as an upset looked on the cards.

Much of Collingwood’s 2022 success must be attributed to coach Craig McRae, who has proven to be an inspirational and visionary leader who thinks out of the box. He was unhappy that his players had slumped to the turf feeling sorry for themselves following the six-point defeat, reminding them they had lost the game but were not losers. He went on to say that he expected to win the flag, and few could disagree given the Pies had just come within a single goal of knocking off the short-priced premiership favourites.

Fremantle were as cold as ice in the opening portion against the Bulldogs, mustering a single point in the first quarter. They trailed by 41 points during the second quarter, and all hope appeared to be lost. This type of poor start can occur following a week off, especially if players are given a break to recover from accumulated knocks and bruises. But Freo righted the ship in the second half to reel the hapless Bulldogs in and get home by 13 points.

Freo play a high-possession game that leaves them susceptible to opposition pressure. When this strategy works, they move the ball around in triangles until space opens and then attack. When it doesn’t work, they look rushed and harried and turn the ball over. The Dockers top the league in disposals, while the Magpies rank 11th, so it will be interesting to see which approach prevails under semi-final pressure.

Key matchup: Pendlebury vs Mundy

Collingwood captain Scott Pendlebury plays a pivotal role steering his younger teammates around the ground. His calm demeanour during times of pressure and adversity steadies his charges when they might otherwise panic and lose the plot. Pendlebury played a huge game against the Cats, grabbing 34 disposals, five clearances, and laying five tackles, but his real skill is poise and leadership. His captaincy is critical to Collingwood’s chances here.

The Fremantle equivalent to Pendlebury is probably David Mundy. The 375-game veteran has seen it all on a footy field and plays an important role in organising the young Freo midfield group. Despite his 37 years of age, Mundy still attracts plenty of ball, averaging 22.6 disposals, 4.9 clearances, and 3.4 tackles per game this season. Watch out for Pendlebury and Mundy, the elder statesmen of their sides, to direct traffic in this do-or-die contest.

Collingwood vs Fremantle semi final betting strategy

Collingwood go into this game as solid favourites, with the line around 12.5 points. After what we saw last week, this might be a free swing. Collingwood were pipped by the flag favs while Freo laboured past the lowly Bulldogs. We are now officially aboard the Magpie bandwagon and expect them to run away with the game. Freo will be without hometown support, while the Pies will have an army at their back on their beloved MCG turf. We really can’t see too many negatives for the Pies here, save the injury to Taylor Adams, and are confidently tipping them at the line.

Collingwood vs Fremantle SF same game multi tips

For those punters looking to cash in on our confidence, we will be taking Collingwood -12.5 points, into Jamie Elliott 2+ goals, into Josh Daicos 20+ disposals. This triple-header will return $4.16 courtesy of Ladbrokes.

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