Carlton v Sydney AFL finals tips & best odds – September 8, 2023

Carlton v Sydney EF best bets

Carlton v Sydney elimination final preview

This Friday, the Carlton Blues are playing their first AFL finals match since 2013 as they host the Sydney Swans in a sudden-death clash on a cold, wet night at the MCG.

The Blues’ nine-match winning streak finally came to an end in round 24 as they lost by 32 points to the GWS Giants at Marvel Stadium. Unable to change their position on the ladder coming into the match, Carlton kept the match close until the Giants went on a seven-goal run in the second half. In a positive for the Blues, key forward Charlie Curnow was able to kick three goals, securing him the 2023 Coleman Medal.

Although their winning streak is over, Carlton remain one of the most dangerous teams in the premiership race. Look for them to have major home support at the sold-out MCG.

The Sydney Swans also had a winning streak come to an end in round 24, as their six-match run was broken by the Melbourne Demons at the SCG. After a tight start to the match, the Swans took a 17-point lead late in the third quarter; however, as has been the story for much of the season, they conceded the last six goals of the match in a disappointing finish.

After finishing as runners-up in 2022, the Swans will be confident of their ability and added experience this finals series. Their fourth-quarter form will certainly need to be addressed, but as the top pressure team in the AFL, back the Swans to be up for the fight.

The Blues are expected to welcome back experienced pair Patrick Cripps and Sam Docherty this weekend. Small forward Jesse Motlop also appears a chance to return.

The Swans are also tipped to welcome back a pair of players as Tom Papley and Justin McInerney both return from injury.

READ: AFL FINALS WEEK 1 BETTING PREVIEW & TIPS

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Carlton v Sydney betting predictions

Based on their form across the last couple of months, these are two of the most in-form teams in the AFL. Both written off throughout the middle of the season, they both come into the finals series carrying great momentum.

The Swans were winless in their three trips to the MCG this season and once again come into this match as underdogs. Their form throughout the first half of matches this season has been excellent, but they have the second-worst percentage in the AFL in fourth quarters.

Coming in as the favourites and possessing a full-strength line-up, the Carlton Blues should be too good for the Swans in this one.

Playing in his first-ever final in the 10th season of his career, Carlton captain Patrick Cripps looks like a player that is built for September footy. The 195cm midfielder relishes the contest, and under the high-pressure environment of wet finals footy, expect Cripps to play a major role for the Blues. After missing round 24 to get his body right, we’re backing Cripps to gather 30 or more disposals at $2.80 with Palmerbet.

A livewire for the Swans, small forward Tom Papley has kicked goals in all but one game this season. Known for showing up at crucial moments, the finals stage presents the perfect opportunity for Papley to hit the scoreboard. With wet conditions favouring the smalls in the forward line, we like him to kick two or more goals at $2.08 with top AFL bookmakers.

Key matchup: Charlie Curnow v Tom McCartin

Charlie Curnow vs Tom McCartin

Fresh off winning his second consecutive Coleman Medal, Charlie Curnow is now playing finals footy for the first time. The most dangerous forward in the AFL, Curnow will be looking to isolate himself in the forward line and use his pace to generate separation from his direct opponent.

Keeping Curnow quiet will play a major role in a Swans upset this Friday night, and that job will fall to Tom McCartin. An elite spoiler of the ball, he will be looking to kill the contest at every opportunity. Curnow also wins more free kicks than any other full forward, so McCartin will need to avoid falling into that trap.

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