Carlton v Richmond AFL tips, odds & predictions | Round 1, 2024

AFL R1: Carlton v Richmond best bets

AFL R1: Blues v Tigers match preview

The 2024 AFL Premiership season continues this Thursday night with the Carlton Blues looking to go 2-0 when they host Richmond at the MCG.

The Blues kicked off their season with an impressive come-from-behind win at the Gabba when they were unfancied in all AFL betting markets. The Lions, who have built a formidable home record in recent years, were leading by as much as 47 points in the second quarter, but the Blues stopped the bleeding, slowly dragged themselves back into the contest, and scrambled home by a solitary point.

After booting the first goal against the Suns in the opening round, the Richmond Tigers were never in the hunt and went down by 39 points. The Tigers were soundly beaten in the centre, with untagged Suns midfielder Matt Rowell winning a record-breaking 20 clearances. New Tigers coach Adem Yze will need to marshal his troops to avoid a dreaded 0-2 start to the season.

Richmond are hopeful of welcoming back some big names for this clash, including Dustin Martin, Toby Nankervis, and Tom Lynch, with Rhyan Mansell also in the selection mix. They will need to lift from the tepid opening effort, particularly in their forward half where they appeared unfocused and lacking in potent thrust.

Carlton will have to make do without Sam Docherty for the rest of the season after the veteran sustained an ACL injury in the win over Brisbane. Meanwhile, small forward Jesse Motlop is set for a late fitness on a toe problem.

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AFL R1: Carlton v Richmond betting strategy

Based on contrasting results from the opening round, Carlton have been installed as warm favourites with the online bookies with the early line set around 15.5 points. This might be a dour, low-scoring affair, so the unders on the total points market looks the way to go.

Carlton are expected to prevail, but not by any significant margin. Expect a high-turnover game with long periods of contested ball. The Blues will be more cohesive with the stability in their squad and should get home by less than 39 points.

Tim Taranto had a subdued performance in round one with just 15 disposals, but Richmond’s 2023 best and fairest should hit back with a greater contribution this week. He will be aided by some key inclusions that should spread defensive pressure and allow him more time and space to accumulate the ball.

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