Carlton v Brisbane AFL betting tips & predictions – Friday, May 5

It’s set to be a belter this Friday night as the Carlton Blues go toe-to-toe with a rampaging Brisbane Lions team at Marvel Stadium. Both teams come into this contest after thrashing the Western Australian sides, with the Blues embarrassing an undermanned Eagles side at home, and the Lions putting the Dockers in their place to the tune of 48 points.

Things can’t go any better for Brisbane at this stage of the 2023 AFL season. A rough start had many of the critics questioning whether they would be premiership contenders after all, but four strong wins on the bounce have catapulted the Lions into the top four with a healthy percentage. One of those victories came at the expense of Collingwood – the outright favourites for the flag with most AFL betting sites.

However, questions remain over the quality of Brisbane’s most recent opponents; North Melbourne, Fremantle, and the GWS Giants are all on track to finish in the bottom half of the ladder this year. And while you can only play what’s in front of you, on Friday night that means a Carlton team looking to stamp its place in the competition. To make things more difficult, the Lions will be away from their den in Brisbane, where they have yet to lose this year.

Last week, the Blues did what good teams are supposed to do to struggling opponents — put them to the sword. They will be coming into this game with plenty of confidence, and with the Brisbane Lions yet to beat a top-eight team away from home, Carlton’s favourite price ($1.86) is justified.

It’s a midfield clash worthy of a grand final: Patrick Cripps, Sam Walsh and Adam Cerra up against Lachie Neale, Josh Dunkley and Will Ashcroft. One player who could take this game by the scruff of the neck is Walsh. The kid runs all day, gets in and under, and finds enough footy to warrant legitimate concerns of leather poisoning. Friday night will be no different as Walsh goes from siren-to-siren, amassing at least 30 disposals ($1.69).

This game may be contested in the middle of the ground, but both teams love to spread and run when it’s outside the centre. This allows their respective attacks to see plenty of the ball inside 50. If the forwards can kick straight, it’s not difficult to see the game’s total points balloon out past 170.5 ($1.88). The conditions will be favourable in the controlled climate of Marvel Stadium, and both teams have shown a penchant for getting scores on the board.

Key matchup: Charlie Curnow v Harris Andrews

Charlie Curnow vs Harris Andrews

Yes, the matchup in the middle of the ground will go a long way to deciding who wins or loses this game, but this contest is equally important — particularly if you follow Brisbane.

Harris Andrews is in the kind of form where you could trust him to lockdown Michael Jordan in Game 6 of the NBA Finals. No key forward has got the better of him this year, and his ability to intercept and begin the rebound from the backline is a big reason for Brisbane’s high scoring.

Andrews seems the suitable matchup to take on Charlie Curnow, who has gone to another level after his Coleman Medal performance last year. The Carlton star kicked nine against West Coast and is averaging 4.3 goals a game this season. Of all the key forwards in the competition, perhaps only Jeremy Cameron has enjoyed a better start to the year.

The equation is simple: if Andrews shuts out Curnow, the Lions win; if Curnow kicks a bag, the Blues win. Something will have to give.

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