Broncos firm in NRL outright betting after Panthers’ shock loss

August 25, 2023 11:42 am.by Wayne Heming

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NRL betting sites have reacted swiftly to Penrith’s shock overnight loss to Parramatta and a possible season-ending injury to star five-eighth Jarome Luai.

The Brisbane Broncos are now challenging Penrith for favouritism in both the minor premiership and NRL Grand Final betting markets.

Luai dislocated his shoulder while attempting to score a try in Thursday night’s 32-18 loss, and scans are expected to confirm he could miss the finals series.

The loss has opened the door for an in-form Brisbane to capture the club’s first minor premiership title in 23 years.

Should they post a convincing victory over a desperate Raiders side in Canberra on Saturday night, the Broncos could oust the Panthers as premiership favourites.

They are now favourites at $1.36 with top online bookmakers to win the minor premiership ahead of Penrith ($3) and equal favourites with Penrith with some bookies to win the competition.

“It’s no longer a one-horse race,” Tabcorp betting analyst Gerard Daffy told BettingSite.com.au.

“It’s been Penrith all year. South Sydney at one stage made a run, but they’ve hit the wall big time.

“Before Thursday night’s clash, Penrith were $2.20 with Brisbane at $3.50. They are now equal favourites at $2.80.”

Ladbrokes betting expert Tom Hackett said his agency still had Penrith as slight premiership favourites, but added he would not be surprised if Brisbane moved into outright favouritism with a win over Canberra over the weekend.

“We’ve got Penrith at $2.65 and the Broncos at $2.85, the shortest quote they have been to win a premiership since the 2015 grand final,” he said.

Wins over Canberra and Melbourne in their last two games of the regular season will give Brisbane their first minor premiership since 2000, when they beat the Melbourne Storm in the grand final.

However, if they drop either of their last two matches and Penrith bounce back to beat the North Queensland Cowboys next weekend, the Panthers will grab the $200,000 prizemoney as minor premiers with a superior points differential.

If Brisbane take out the minor premiership, there’s a scenario where they play Melbourne at Suncorp Stadium in the final round and then host the Storm again in the first week of the finals.

Melbourne boast a dominant head-to-head record against Brisbane since 1988 and they love playing at Suncorp Stadium.

Penrith dominated most of Thursday night’s game stats – except where it counted most, on the scoreboard – but they couldn’t match Parramatta’s high energy and effort for the 80 minutes.

Penrith had more possession (54-46%), a better completion rate (83-78%), a better metres run total (1,938m to 1,679m), made more tackle breaks (48-39), passed the ball more than Parramatta (278-215), while forcing four line drop-outs to one and missing fewer tackles (39-48).

The only key area where Parramatta finished on top was offloads (13-12).

In the end, the Eels won the game on effort plays, pressure defence, and having the courage to shift the ball wide after their forwards did their yardage job in the middle.

For 26 weeks, Penrith have looked almost unbeatable, but the Eels have now laid bare the blueprint to beat them just two weeks out from the finals.

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