Brisbane vs Richmond AFL elimination final tips & value bets

Are the Brisbane Lions facing another AFL finals wipe-out when they host the resurgent Richmond Tigers at the Gabba in Thursday’s elimination final?

Brisbane were comprehensively dismantled by Melbourne in the final round of the AFL season. The 58-point loss must have hit their confidence going into the finals series, and the game featured ugly scenes involving some much-publicised sledging by Dayne Zorko. The Lions surrendered a top-four position in another psychological hit, and we will now see the state of the group’s mindset.

An elimination would be a disaster for the Lions, who looked premiership contenders for most of the home and away season. They certainly have the talent, and a loss will reflect poorly on their ability to beat top sides and win on the road.

Richmond, on the other hand, enter this game brimming with confidence having won their last four games, including a decisive late victory over the Lions in round 20. After being written off several times during the season, the Tigers have nothing to lose and should play with dare and dash here. Their best form is good enough to roll any opponent, and punters have warmed to their chances for this fixture.

Richmond are still sweating on a fitness test for superstar Dustin Martin (hamstring), but received a huge boost when Tom Lynch was cleared to play. Of the two, Lynch is arguably the more important inclusion, given Martin has been absent for large portions of the season and Lynch has been red hot in front of goal. Martin has apparently been working through some tough training drills and can probably be rated as 70/30 proposition as we go to print.

Key matchup: Lachie Neale vs Dion Prestia

Brisbane midfield champ Lachie Neale is instrumental to his team’s winning hopes. The Brownlow Medal favourite is susceptible to a close tag or a run-with player, and the Lions struggle noticeably when Neale is quiet. Neale has averaged 30.1 disposals and 7.3 clearances in 2022, and if Richmond can hold him under those numbers, either via tagging or superior ball-winning, they will take a huge stride toward grabbing victory.

Richmond midfielder Dion Prestia is a similar in-and-under type player to Neale and has also had a stellar year. Prestia has averaged a slightly inferior 25.6 disposals and 5.9 clearances in 2022 but has proven a model of consistency. He puts his head down and gets to work, week after week without fanfare, winning the hard ball to set up the Richmond outside runners. Prestia has outperformed all his key career stats this season and is the much-loved heart of the Richmond engine room.

Brisbane vs Richmond AFL finals betting strategy

The Tigers are slight favourites here and there has been solid support in recent days. The line is set around 5.5 points with most online bookmakers. Had Brisbane beaten the Demons in round 23, they would probably be priced around $1.60. But such was the nature of the defeat, they are now unwanted in betting. We are sticking with the Tigers to keep their run going. The line looks of negligible impact, so Richmond -5.5 points is the official tip. We would be very surprised to see Brisbane turn the switch and suddenly produce their best form.

Brisbane vs Richmond same game multi tips – elimination final

For the value-hunters, we will be rolling our Richmond tip into some same-game exotics that will deliver the big bucks. We are linking Richmond -5.5 points, into Dion Prestia 25+ disposals, into Tom Lynch 2+ goals, into Noah Cumberland 2+ goals. This wager will return $4.65 courtesy of Ladbrokes.

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