Brisbane vs Essendon AFL Rd 17 best bets – Sunday, July 10

The injury-riddled Brisbane Lions will look to register their 12th win of the 2022 AFL season this Sunday as they host Essendon at the Gabba in round 17.

Seven Lions have already been ruled out of this contest through a mix of injury and COVID protocols, including Callum Ah Chee, Harris Andrews, Jarrod Berry, Daniel McStay, Jaxon Prior and Dayne Zorko.

Perhaps the biggest out for the home side will be Daniel Rich, who went down in round 16 with a hamstring injury, while his partner-in-crime off half-back in Keidean Coleman has entered COVID protocols.

Ryan Lester and Harry Sharp have come in to replace that pair in defence, while Mitch Robinson, Nakia Cockatoo, Tom Fullarton and Darcy Fort return alongside debutant Carter Michael.

The Bombers may not have the same long injury list as the Lions, but they will be without arguably their best player in Darcy Parish after the star midfielder sustained a calf strain during the week.

In better news for Essendon, Andrew McGrath returns to a side that is in good spirits following last week’s upset win over the Sydney Swans.

The Lions have endured a shaky last month on the field, as they have won only three of their last five games despite sitting inside the top four.

Although Chris Fagan’s men were excellent against the Bulldogs last week, they could struggle against the improving Bombers given their long list of absentees.

Key matchup: Lachie Neale vs Zach Merrett

When it comes to finding the footy, Lachie Neale and Zach Merrett are among the best in the business. The 2020 Brownlow Medal winner is averaging over 30 disposals per game this season, while the ever-prolific Merrett is likely to see even more of the ball than usual with Darcy Parish sidelined.

The Bombers could not stop Neale in their last clash, as he put together 37 disposals and kicked two majors. Merrett will be a good matchup with Neale in the centre, as the two love to stick their nose in the thick of the action to win the clearances. Both are solid options in the disposal betting markets, but we think Neale could go ballistic this Sunday.

Brisbane vs Essendon match predictions

With the Lions missing some key players heading into the match, the Bombers will have a great chance to make it a close contest. Andrew McGrath is a big in, as he adds another dynamic to the Essendon midfield with his speed and agility. Brisbane’s home advantage at the Gabba is a concern, but the Dons should still be good enough to cover the line.

Brisbane vs Essendon goalkicker betting tips

Lincoln McCarthy has become a critical player for the Lions, as he offers plenty without the ball and is a deadeye when lining up for goal. The former Cat is an excellent mark inside 50 and has unexpected athletic traits. Essendon have struggled with their defensive matchups for much of the season, and this is one they might have trouble with.

Brisbane vs Essendon AFL same-game multi

We expect a tight contest at the Gabba this weekend, with best mates Lincoln McCarthy and Lachie Neale to dominate their respective areas of the ground.

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