Brisbane v Sydney AFL tips, odds & multi picks – June 16, 2023

Brisbane v Sydney predictions & best bets

Lions v Swans AFL R14 match preview

Friday night sees the Sydney Swans travel up to Brisbane to face the Lions at the Gabba in round 14 of the 2023 AFL season. Both teams are coming off losses last weekend and are looking to bounce back with a win.

The Swans hosted the St Kilda Saints last week and their disappointing season continued. After failing to score in the first quarter, the Swans bounced back to lead at three-quarter-time, but fell away late, eventually falling by 14 points. The clear problem for Sydney on the night was their disposal efficiency, as they regularly turned the ball over in critical areas of the ground.

The Swans now sit with a record of 5-7 and their hopes of finals are rapidly disappearing. Injuries to tall players have ravaged their season, but the form of many of their star players has been down substantially from last season. Experienced players such as Isaac Heeney and Tom Papley will need to lift if the Swans are going to salvage anything from this season, beginning this weekend with one of the toughest games of the season, the Lions at home.

The Brisbane Lions last weekend travelled down to Melbourne to face off against the Hawthorn Hawks. Historically known for their poor form at the MCG, the Lions continued that trend once again as the Hawks came from behind to run out comfortable 25 point winners. Midfield bull Josh Dunkley was huge with 28 touches, 11 tackles and a goal, but there were too many passengers for the Lions, who were out worked around the ground.

The difference between the Lions home and away form this season has been clear. The Lions haven’t lost at home this season, whilst losing four out of their six matches away. Luckily for the Lions this week they’re back at home and coming off a loss expect them to be fired up and ready for the contest.

Brisbane v Sydney betting strategy

At home the Lions should be too much for the out-of-form Swans, with the Lions powerful forward line looking a handful for the undermanned Swans defence. Back the Lions in this week at $1.22 with BetOnline.

As the Swans conceded a run of goals late last week, it was apparent that they were clearly missing their skipper Luke Parker who was out with suspension. Sydney’s most physical midfielder, when the ball is there to be won, Parker normally is the one who gets in and wins it. After missing last week, expect Parker to come back in raring to go, gathering a ton of footy, with the 25 or more disposals market looking the best option at $1.60.

When the Lions are running hot at home, it normally corresponds with the form of small forward Charlie Cameron. With no clear matchup for the Swans to run with, Cameron’s speed and agility will pose a constant threat within the contest and in transition, regularly finding space over the top. In a game where the Lions are expected to win well, look for Cameron to kick three or more goals at $1.85 with top online bookmakers.

Key matchup: Neale v Warner

Lachie Neale vs Chad Warner

A matchup between the two greatest ball winners at each club, they each collect the ball in different ways, both equally important for their team’s structure.

Chad Warner works best when collecting the ball and progressing it forward. Regularly collecting a heap of clearances, Warner loves to get the footy and run with it, breaking tackles and off-loading to teammates in better positions. He also loves to hit the scoreboard, regularly coming out of the contest, kicking goals on the run from outside 50.

Lachie Neale works in a very different way, regularly collecting the hard contested ball for the team, distributing out to teammates in space. Regularly collecting over 30 disposals a game, Neale never struggles to find it and can turn a game off his own boot in the middle. Attending the highest percentage of centre bounces in the competition so far this season, Neale is going to be a headache for the Swans all night.

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