Brisbane v Carlton AFL finals tips & odds – September 23, 2023

Lions vs Blues prelim final predictions

Brisbane vs Carlton Boombet Same Game Multi

Brisbane vs Carlton preliminary final preview

The 2023 AFL finals series continues on Saturday afternoon as the Brisbane Lions host the Carlton Blues at the Gabba in the second preliminary final.

Two weeks ago, the Lions beat the Port Adelaide Power by 48 points to earn themselves a spot in the preliminary finals. The Power held the lead at the 20-minute mark of the second quarter, but it was all the Lions from there. Kicking 14 goals to six from that point on, the Lions showed their class as key forward Joe Daniher booted five goals.

Reaching the preliminary finals for the third time in the last four years, the Brisbane Lions look more likely than ever to reach the grand final for the first time since 2004.

The Blues played Melbourne at the MCG last weekend, winning by two points in a thrilling back-and-forth contest. Neither side was able to pull away, as the margin never cleared 10 points after quartertime.

READ: AFL FINALS WEEK 3 PREVIEW & TIPS

The Blues should consider themselves lucky in the end, as the Demons inaccurate kicking, including 2.6 in the final term, kept them in the match. Midfielder Sam Walsh was exceptional with 34 disposals, two goals and eight tackles, while captain Patrick Cripps had 27 disposals and nine clearances.

After finishing in fifth spot, Carlton have made their first preliminary final since 2000. Riding the momentum of their large supporter base, the Blues will be looking to continue their fairytale run against the odds in Brisbane.

The Lions will be concerned with the availability of key defender Jack Payne, who has been working through an ankle injury at training. As he is the likely matchup for Charlie Curnow, the Lions held back Darcy Gardner from the VFL last weekend as a potential replacement. Veteran Jack Gunston is also a chance to return after dealing with a knee injury.

Despite injuring his shoulder against the Demons last weekend, Carlton half-back Sam Docherty is expected to play this weekend. With Harry McKay (concussion) and Jack Martin (suspension) both returning to the side, expect Matthew Kennedy to be omitted, while the likes of Jesse Motlop, David Cunningham and Oliver Hollands are potential omissions as well.

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Brisbane vs Carlton betting strategy

With the Carlton Blues playing both their finals at the MCG so far, they now face the undefeated Lions at the Gabba. Unconvincing in both finals so far, the Blues will need to put together a much-improved performance if they wish to pull off an upset.

The Lions come into this match well rested and at home. They have shown their greatest form in the right part of the season, and their convincing win over the Power shows that, at their best, they are extremely hard to beat. With the Lions showing limited value at -270.27 in head-to-head betting, we are backing the Lions to cover the line of -18.5 points.

With the Lions averaging over 95 points a game at the Gabba this season, we are expecting their potent forward line to cause headaches for the Blues defence. With the last seven matches between the two sides at the Gabba going over the total points line, we are expecting more of the same in what should be another high-scoring contest.

Since moving to a greater midfield role in round 16, Brisbane midfielder Hugh McCluggage has had a resurgence in form. Averaging 24.7 disposals since then, McCluggage now attends 50% of centre bounces as an explosive clearance player, and he starred against the Power with 26 disposals, nine clearances and a goal. We are backing his good form to continue with 25 or more disposals at -105.26 with Palmerbet.

Key matchup: Daniher vs Weitering

Joe Daniher vs Jacob Weitering

Joe Daniher has found form at the right time of year, kicking 10 goals in his last three matches. At 201cm, the Brisbane forward is a constant marking threat around the ground and inside 50, with most of his opportunities coming from set shots. Accuracy in front of goal has been a problem at times, but Daniher should be encouraged by his 5.1 effort against the Power.

Coming up against him this weekend is one of the top one-on-one defenders in the league. Jacob Weitering’s mix of size and speed makes it hard for forwards to create space. His elite intercept marking also plays a role in the Blues’ rebound game, allowing them to take smarter exits from the backline as opposed to bombing it out.

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