AFL Finals: Fremantle vs Western Bulldogs tips, odds & value bets

After just scraping into the top eight, can the Western Bulldogs keep their AFL Premiership dream alive when they face Fremantle at Optus Stadium this Saturday?

Fremantle rounded out their home and away season with a solid win on the road against the GWS Giants. While the Dockers fell short of a coveted top-four spot, they have easily surpassed pre-season expectations with a fifth-place finish. Freo has won three on the trot going into September, including a comfortable 17-point win over the Dogs in round 21 at Melbourne’s Marvel Stadium.

Fremantle rank second in the AFL for hitouts, first for disposals, 11th for inside 50s, and 12th for goals, and ninth for tackles. The obvious knock on the Dockers is their overuse of the ball and failure to generate enough scoring opportunities. When a high-disposal style is working well, it can be used to run the opposite players ragged, but we are much more impressed with direct and confident ball-use that sets up goals. Freo are without one of their biggest stars Nat Fyfe for this game.

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After a series of round 23 miracles, the Bulldogs enter September with nothing to lose. The Dogs come in with only average form including a five-point win over the Giants and a scrappy 23-point victory over the Hawks. Prior to that, the Dogs were beaten by Freo and Geelong – not the ideal preparation.

The Bulldogs rank 15th for tackles in the comp, fourth for disposals, fifth for goals, third for inside fifties, and 15th for hitouts. It’s hard to imagine the Dogs have the tools to make a deep finals run unless there is some kind of X-factor at play. They have been inconsistent most of the year and would need to suddenly find a couple of gears if they are to compete against the league’s best teams. They are also missing Tom Liberatore for this game – a huge loss.

Key matchup: Andrew Brayshaw vs Adam Treloar

Fremantle midfielder Andrew Brayshaw has had a stellar year and the awards are already rolling in. The 22-year-old has averaged 29.1 disposals, 6.3 tackles, 4.1 clearance, and 112.4 AFL Fantasy points this season. This output is a huge jump on his career numbers, and Brayshaw looks set to be one of the game’s most dominant midfielders should he remain fit and healthy.

Bulldogs midfielder Adam Treloar will need to be at his very best for this game with the absence of Liberatore. Treloar has had a relatively solid year, averaging 27.1 disposals, 3.1 tackles, 3.2 clearances, and 96.4 AFL Fantasy points. These numbers are down slightly on his career averages, but Treloar can set that right with a big showing here when his team needs it most.

Fremantle vs Western Bulldogs EF betting strategy

With the home ground advantage in their favour, the Dockers are warm 11.5-point favourites going into this fixture. For believers in form, the Dockers line bet looks like a slam dunk. For those that factor intangibles into their betting decisions, some hope may be afforded the Dogs’ chances. We are going with the former and expect the Dockers to be far too good. The round 21 victory is all too fresh in our memory, and we just can’t gamble against our own eyes. Fremantle -11.5 points is the official tip.

Fremantle vs Western Bulldogs FW1 same game multi tips

For the value-hunters, we will be linking our main tip into Rory Lobb 2+ goals and Andrew Brayshaw 25+ disposals. This triple-header will return $4.32 courtesy of Ladbrokes.

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