AFL 2023 premiership picks, futures tips & betting predictions

February 24, 2023 4:19 pm.by Jackson Byrne

Carlton star Charlie Curnow

The 2023 AFL Premiership season is almost upon us, so let’s look forward to some possible early plays, while bearing in mind that long-range forecasting generally makes a fool of even the most accurate prediction models.

Sporting seasons are long. All teams will suffer injuries to key players, off-field personnel issues, form slumps, narrow defeats, and unlikely winning streaks. But that said, many punters like to take the generous odds available pre-season in the hope of setting up profitable positions.

Below are some of our top futures betting tips for the 2023 AFL season, with odds courtesy of Ladbrokes.

2023 AFL Premiership outright betting

The reigning premiers are predictably short to win the flag in 2023. Geelong ($5.50) have a nice balance to their list with plenty of young, developing talent to choose from. Their grand final demolition of the hapless Swans could not have been more emphatic.

For value we are looking at Carlton ($9), who showed enormous improvement during the 2022 season, and Collingwood ($10), who fit a similar profile. If their momentum can be continued, both sides look likely to feature in September action.

For those chasing a longshot, Essendon ($51) are apparently thriving under the careful eye of new coach Brad Scott and their young list has plenty of potential for improvement. They might surprise a few more-fancied sides during the year and a top-eight finish is not out of the question.

We are wary of Brisbane ($8) based on their failures in the latter stages of 2022. The Lions seem to have a psychological weakness that prevents them from going all the way. We are also cautious of Melbourne’s ($7) ability to maintain their best form across a long campaign.

2023 Coleman Medal betting

After topping the goalscoring in 2022, Carlton’s Charlie Curnow ($9) is equal second favourite in the Coleman Medal markets behind Geelong’s Jeremy Cameron ($7). Curnow has plenty of scope for improvement and we are also confident Richmond’s Tom Lynch ($9) will have another big year and hopefully remain injury free.

For an outsider, Essendon’s Peter Wright ($23) might be worth closer inspection after a career-best season in 2022. And if you are hunting real value, Gold Coast’s Mabior Chol ($101) booted 44 goals last year and has plenty of upside.

2023 Brownlow Medal betting

Of all the future markets, Brownlow Medal betting is the least appealing. We have limited faith in the men in yellow – many of whom are jealous, disgruntled, failed players – to accurately rate the game’s real stars.

If you must indulge in this early market, Fremantle’s Andrew Brayshaw ($13) might be worth a dabble, or St Kilda’s Jack Steele ($23). Of the favourites, Gold Coast’s Touk Miller ($11) polled well in 2022, even when his impact was questionable at times.

AFL 2023 season wins predictions

Based on our bullish assessment of the Bombers, there looks to be some value in estimating their number of wins during the home-and-away season. The line has been set at 10.5 wins across 23 rounds, and we will be taking the overs.

The Gold Coast Suns are also assessed at 10.5 wins, which might be another value play. On the flip side, Port Adelaide are a perennial disappointment, and it might be worth betting on them win less than 12.5 games in the regular season.

And if you like an underdog, North Melbourne might scramble over 6.5 wins if they can step up their consistency.

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