Adelaide v Brisbane AFL betting tips & top odds – May 28, 2023

Adelaide Crows v Brisbane Lions best bets

Adelaide vs Brisbane AFL R11 match preview

The final game of round 11 sees the red-hot Brisbane Lions travel across to South Australia to face the Adelaide Crows. A close game is expected as both sides look to continue their finals push.

Last weekend, the Crows put on their most disappointing performance of the season when they headed down to Ballarat to face the Western Bulldogs. Behind all day, the Doggies’ lead grew as the game went on, ending up at 45 points. There were struggles at both ends for the Crows, as they kicked only five goals while conceding 30 scoring shots.

Away form has been a major issue for the Crows so far this season. They have won only one game on the road, scraping home by three points against the lowly Hawks in round six. However, at Adelaide Oval their form has been particularly impressive with four wins and a one-point loss to first-placed Collingwood. Another game at home this weekend creates the perfect opportunity to upset one of the in-form teams of the competition.

The Brisbane Lions continued on their winning ways in round 10 as they beat the Gold Coast Suns by 43 points. A close game throughout, the Suns were within a kick at the start of the last quarter before the Lions kicked six unanswered goals to run out the game. It was an impressive performance from the Brisbane midfield, who controlled the game throughout, while key forward Joe Daniher kicked four goals in another solid display.

Following Melbourne’s loss last weekend, the Lions now sit second on the ladder having won their last seven straight. A key reason for Brisbane’s winning form has been midfield additions Josh Dunkley and Will Ashcroft. Recruited from the Bulldogs last year, Dunkley has become an essential part of the midfield and one of the best contested players in the game, using his size and two-way running ability to impact both sides of the ball. Taken at number four in last year’s draft, few expected Ashcroft to transition into footy as smoothly as he has. The midfielder has held his own in one of the best midfields in the competition, showcased last week as he gathered 30 disposals and kicked a goal.

Crows v Lions betting strategy

Last time the Lions played at Adelaide Oval was round one, when they were humiliated by Port Adelaide to the tune of 54 points. Brisbane have come a long way since, yet they should be worried about the form of the Crows on their home deck on a wet Sunday afternoon. Adelaide at home is a different beast, so we are tipping an upset and backing the Crows at $2.15 with the top bookmakers.

In slippery conditions, expect the Adelaide smalls to be at their crumbing best inside 50. Izak Rankine has been doing this all season, and Sunday should be no different. Since coming across to the Crows in the offseason, Rankine has been a key part of one of the most dynamic and unpredictable forward lines in the AFL. His speed and clean ball-skills will break the game wide open, creating opportunities out of nothing. Expect Rankine to hit the scoreboard, kicking two or more goals ($1.89).

Slippery conditions usually result in a contested-ball game, and who better to stand up for the Lions than star midfielder Lachie Neale? An elite contested player, Neale will be at the heart of each contest getting the hard ball. Having collected 30 or more disposals in four of the last six weeks, expect him to hit that mark again in Adelaide ($1.86).

Key matchup: Wayne Milera v Charlie Cameron

Wayne Milera vs Charlie Cameron

The pressure will be on the Adelaide to limit the potent Brisbane forward line and, most importantly, limit Charlie Cameron. The Crows lack an obvious matchup for the speedy small forward, but Wayne Milera appears the most likely to take the job. Regularly this season teams have struggled to find a defender to match Cameron one-on-one, and as such, the assignment doesn’t just fall upon one player, but the Adelaide team as a whole. Cameron is such a danger to opposition teams because of his speed, agility and goal sense. He leads all small forwards in the AFL for goals and is a headache for coaches every week.

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