2016 Derby Day bookie specials, free tips, quaddie & exotics

October 27, 2016 4:38 pm.by Daryl Curnow

Victoria Derby 2016
Originally published at www.HorseBetting.com

VICTORIA Derby day is a dream for punters with four Group one races – the Coolmore Stud Stakes, Myer Classic, the Cantala Stakes (formerly Emirates Stakes) and the Derby itself.

Every other race on the card at Flemington this Saturday is a stakes race, which gives punters the opportunity to bet on the best thoroughbreds in Australia.

The Victoria Derby is the feature race of the day where a classy field will chase the $1.5 million prize, but it hasn’t been the most popular betting race throughout the week.

The Group 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes is one of the best sprinting fields ever assembled in Australia. The likes of Extreme Choice, Astern and Star Turn will do battle down the Flemington straight.

Race 1 – The Carbine Club Stakes (1600m)

Hey Doc continues to run well this preparation which has included three wins and a third placing in the Group 1 Caulfield Guineas. The Tony McEvoy-trained gelding had to do it tough last start at Caulfield, but still managed to run Divine Prophet close. It has again drawn wide in this, but it has been well supported into $4.80 after getting out to $5.50.

Morton’s Fork is a three-time winner for John O’Shea which was held up in the Gothic Stakes last start. It looked to have plenty in the tank and it has drawn ideally in barrier four here. The son of Ad Valorem showed its ability by winning back-to-back races in Sydney and the $4.50 is a good price on offer.

Acatour was ridden upside down by Blake Shinn last start and we’re expecting a change of tactics here. The Snowden-trained colt is best suited to settling off the pace and unleashing a big sprint, but it went forward last start and that didn’t suit. Having drawn barrier seven will force it back, but watch it sprint late. $4.40 available with bookmakers.

Race 1 tip: Acatour to win ($4.40) at Sportsbet.com.au

Race 2 – Mumm Wakeful Stakes (2000m)

Tiamo Grace was impressive when finishing second in the Ethereal Stakes behind Eleonora. The Darren Weir-trained filly was cramped for room before sprouting wings late, which suggests the rise in distance to 2000m will suit perfectly. Its form prior was solid without being excellent, so its run last start might have been a flash in the pan, but the $3.50 suggests another top run is expected.

Sebring Dream ran fifth in the Ethereal Stakes last start and the run was much better than it looked. The Hayes/Dabernig-trained filly settled at the rear of the field and wide, but still managed to sustain a strong gallop to the line. It has drawn wide here, but Flemington is ideal and it won easily here in May. Drifting in the market at $4.80, but it looks a strong chance.

Missrock hasn’t had the best of luck this preparation, but it has ability and should be considered on an each way basis. The Robbie Laing-trained filly made late ground in the Thousand Guineas behind Global Glamour and although it’s becoming expensive for punters, the $7.50 is a good price.

Race 2 tip: Sebring Dream to win ($4.80) at WilliamHill.com.au

Race 3 – Sensis Stakes (1100m)

Wild Rain is an eight-time winner which has yet to win at Flemington, but it is a four-time winner at this distance and the wide draw might suit in this. The Mark Kavanagh-trained mare won the McEwen Stakes earlier this spring and its best run came when it ran third in the Group 1 Moir Stakes behind Extreme Choice. That’s great form and the $9 on offer is generous from bookmakers.

Sheidel was a stylish winner in the Northwood Plume at Caulfield and it should have no problem sitting on the pace down the Flemington straight. The Hayes/Dabernig-trained mare is a 13-time winner from 23 starts and it has given punters a great return so far. It’s currently $5.50 for the win which is a better price than expected.

Take Pride is a big odds of $51 and it could cause a major upset in this. The four-year-old has won and placed twice at Flemington and despite its form, it hasn’t been too disappointing at its last couple of efforts. Would certainly need to improve to feature here, but the odds could be worth the risk.

Race 3 tip: Take Pride to place ($14) at Sportsbet.com.au

Race 4 – Lexus Stakes (2500m)

Tom Melbourne was gallant in defeat last start at Caulfield and it showed punters it still has something to give this campaign. The Freedman-trained gelding won its only start at Flemington which bodes well for this, but it will need to find a soft lead in front to have a chance. It’s the likely pacesetter, but it can’t run a strong 2500m and win here. Chance if the pace is run to suit at $4.40.

Oceanographer ran third in a relatively weak Geelong Cup, but it made good ground late and that was eye catching. The Charlie Appleby-trained European mixes its form which makes it tough to follow, but it would be winning this at its best and punters have launched into the $4 that was once on offer. It’s now at $3 and it looks a strong winning hope.

Real Love is a 10-time winner which wasn’t ridden well in the Caulfield Cup. It never settled with Craig Williams in the saddle and Brad Rawiller has placed Williams for this run. It goes well at Flemington and its form prior included a win in the JRA Cup by three lengths. Drifting in the market to $5, but there’s no reason it can’t show its best here.

Race 4 tip: Oceanographer to win ($3) at CrownBet.com.au

Race 5 – Coolmore Stud Stakes (1200m)

Astern has been drifting steadily in the market, but the John O’Shea-trained colt owns plenty of ability. The Golden Rose winner tasted defeat at the hands of Russian Revolution last start, but it still ran good sectionals and its form prior was impressive. There are concerns about it running at Flemington, which could be why it has drifted from $3.40 to $4, but don’t rule it out in a tough race.

Extreme Choice was simply brilliant when winning the Group 1 Moir Stakes at Moonee Valley and its trainer Mick Price is supremely confident about its chances. The three-year-old has great pace out of the barriers and it showed last start that it can settle back and show an incredible turn-of-foot. That’s a great asset to have down the straight at Flemington and its current price of $3 won’t last too much longer.

Flying Artie did plenty wrong when winning the Blue Sapphire, but drawing the rail might help it run in a straight line. The Mick Price-trained runner has competed and beaten some of the best three-year-old sprinters in Australia and its current odds of $11 is great value. It has worked well leading into this so consider at each way odds.

Race 5 tip: Extreme Choice to win ($3) at CrownBet.com.au

Race 6 – Myer Classic (1600m)

First Seal returned to its best form with a win in the Tristarc Stakes last start. The John Thompson-trained mare has mixed it with the best throughout its career, including Winx, and it should have found its confidence again. It is having its third run this campaign and faces a field stacked with talent, but punters have been eager to take the odds on offer.

Don’t Doubt Mamma has been an impressive winner of its last two races and despite a betting drift, it should be tough to beat. The Tony McEvoy-trained mare is a three-time winner at Flemington so the long straight suits and drawing barrier 13 won’t be an issue as it likes to settle back and storm home. It opened at $6.50 and has drifted to $7.50 which is a good price.

The best-backed runner has been Dixie Blossoms. The Ron Quinton-trained mare scored an impressive win last start and it ran some slick sectionals in the run home. It’s an unknown type going left handed and that’s the main concern, but respect the amount of money being put on at $6 so follow any further betting moves.

Race 6 tip: Don’t Doubt Mamma to win ($7.50) at Sportsbet.com.au

Race 7 – AAMI Victoria Derby (2500m)

Swear was gallant when running second behind Yankee Rose in the Spring Champion Stakes and that form has been franked in the 2016 Cox Plate. The Hawkes-trained colt looks as though the rise in distance will suit and the Sydney form has stood up throughout the Melbourne spring campaign. It has fitness on its side and it is paying a good place price with bookmakers.

Sacred Elixir overcame some bad luck to win at Moonee Valley last start and it is the clear favourite for the Derby. The Tony Pike-trained gelding is a winner of the J.J. Atkins at Eagle Farm and that big race winning experience will count for plenty in this. It has drawn the rail so it won’t have to expend much energy and it’s sure to be fighting out the finish. $3.10 available in the win markets.

So Si Bon has been set for the Derby by Robbie Laing who won the Derby in 2013 with Polanski. The So You Think colt has been around the mark throughout this campaign and it has always hinted that the staying distances would be its go. Hugh Bowman has a great record in the Derby and $9 suggests his runner has a strong winning chance.

Race 7 tip: So Si Bon to place ($3) at Bet365.com.au

Race 8 – Cantala Stakes (1600m)

Seaburge has had a few near misses this campaign which included a last start placing in the Caulfield Guineas and it looks a chance down in the weights here. It is giving away a fair amount of experience to most of these, but it carries only 50kg here and that makes it dangerous. Not the worst at $9.

He’s Our Rokki has been one of the most improved horses this season and it has rattled off five consecutive wins. The Hayes/Dabernig-trained import won the Toorak Handicap last start and it hasn’t been harshly penalised in the weights. It carries 55.5kg here and although it has drawn awkwardly in barrier 11, Dwayne Dunn should be able to find a nice spot. $7 for the form horse of the field is generous.

The United States is on the backup after winning the Crystal Mile at Moonee Valley last Saturday. The Robert Hickmott-trained horse has yet to fire in three starts at Flemington, but it has returned from an injury with good promise and it has always had ability to win at the highest level in Australia. Must be considered at $6 after opening at $5.50.

Race 8 tip: He’s Our Rokki to win ($7) at WilliamHill.com.au

Race 9 – Tab Stakes (1200m)

Southern Legend finished off well behind Takedown in the Premiere Stakes at Randwick last start and its form prior was solid. The Les Bridge-trained gelding finished third in the Theo Marks and although it drops back in distance from that run, it has won twice at the 1200m and it should be considered at odds of $4.40.

Keen Array has shown its true ability with back-to-back wins and it has drawn well for this. The four-year-old has drawn barrier four and given its recent form, it must be considered at each way odds. It is a four-time winner at this distance and although yet to win at Flemington, it’s only a matter of time. Bookmakers are offering $5.50 for the win.

Counterattack has only been fair this campaign, but punters have supported it again. The Chris Waller-trained runner hasn’t impressed in three runs back from a spell and it’s currently on the second line of betting at $5.50. We respect its talent, but that price is a touch too short.

Race 9 tip: Keen Array to win ($5.50) at CrownBet.com.au