Western Bulldogs vs Essendon AFL finals tips & top value bets

The 2021 AFL Premiership season will end for either the Western Bulldogs or the Essendon Bombers this Sunday afternoon as they face off in a cut-throat elimination final at UTAS Stadium.

Luke Beveridge’s Bulldogs were pipped at the post by Port Adelaide last weekend, which was the club’s third successive loss to end the season.

The Bombers closed out the home-and-away season with three excellent wins, including a comfortable win over Collingwood in round 23.

While Ben Rutten’s Dons only beat one top-eight side during the regular season, that win came against the Western Bulldogs in round 21.

The Doggies have struggled to score since their key forward Josh Bruce tore his ACL, but they could bring back Stefan Martin or Jamarra Ugle-Hagan to add some much-needed height this week.

Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti, Kyle Langford, Jye Caldwell and Nik Cox are all pushing for selection this weekend as the Bombers chase their first AFL finals victory since 2004.

Western Bulldogs vs Essendon elimination final preview

Ben Rutten has implemented more speed into the Bombers’ brand in his first season at the helm, which has worked very well for the young side. The Bulldogs are known for their sharp handballing through the middle, but that strategy may not be optimal this weekend. Wet conditions are expected in Launceston this Sunday, which will disrupt the Dogs’ hands-first mentality.

Adam Treloar missed a large chunk of the home-and-away season with an ankle injury, but he has reclaimed spot in the Bulldogs’ midfield alongside Jack Macrae and Marcus Bontempelli. Treloar is one of the best accumulators in the competition and a forgotten weapon for the Doggies, so he is one to consider in the major disposal betting markets this weekend.

WesternBulldogs

• Taylor Duryea
• Alex Keath
• Bailey Williams
• Caleb Daniel
• Zaine Cordy
• Bailey Dale
• Adam Treloar
• Josh Dunkley
• Lachie Hunter
• Laitham Vandermeer
• Aaron Naughton
• Bailey Smith
• Tom Liberatore
• Tim English
• Cody Weightman
• Lewis Young
• Jackson Macrae
• Marcus Bontempelli
• Jason Johannisen
• Mitch Hannan
• Easton Wood
• Roarke Smith
• Ryan Gardner (Emg)
• Josh Schache (Emg)
• Anthony Scott (Emg)
• Rhylee West (Emg)
• Coach: Luke Beveridge

EssendonBombers

• Jake Stringer
• Peter Wright
• Devon Smith
• Will Snelling
• Aaron Francis
• Archie Perkins
• Andrew McGrath
• Zach Merrett
• Alec Waterman
• Dyson Heppell
• Jordan Ridley
• James Stewart
• Mason Redman
• Jayden Laverde
• Tom Cutler
• Sam Draper
• Darcy Parish
• Dylan Shiel
• Martin Gleeson
• Jye Caldwell
• Matt Guelfi
• Sam Durham
• Nikolas Cox (Emg)
• Andrew Phillips (Emg)
• Dylan Clarke (Emg)
• Brayden Ham (Emg)
• Coach: Ben Rutten

Key matchup: Aaron Naughton vs Peter Wright

The key forwards will have a huge part to play this Sunday afternoon, as putting goals on the board will be critical in a tight contest. Aaron Naughton and Peter Wright have been excellent this season, kicking 40 and 29 goals respectively. Wright dominated the Bulldogs back in round 21 when kicking a career-high seven majors, and his conversion in the last four weeks (13.2) sums up his impressive transformation over the course of the season. Although neither forward will kick a big bag this weekend in less than ideal conditions, they are both good choices to finish with two or more majors.

Western Bulldogs vs Essendon EF predictions & best bets

Essendon to win

The Bulldogs are vulnerable and the Bombers are in full flight, which has us thinking Essendon may finally break its 17-year finals drought. The inclusion of Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti is not yet confirmed, but his presence would give the Dons a massive boost. We cannot see the Bulldogs kicking a high enough score to beat the explosive Bombers this weekend, so get on the odds about the outsiders.

Adam Treloar to get 25+ disposals

Adam Treloar has always enjoyed playing the Bombers, even dating back to his days at the GWS Giants. While the 2018 ANZAC Medal winner only managed 22 disposals against the Bombers in round 21, that was his first game back after 11 weeks on the sidelines. Treloar collected 25 or more disposals in seven of his first 10 games for the Bulldogs, so he is capable of finding the footy within this talented midfield mix.

Same game multi: 3 legs @ $8

We think this game will go down to the wire and possibly end with an upset, so the Bombers at the line is a no-brainer. The experienced Adam Treloar should collect plenty of disposals for the Doggies, while we reckon Peter Wright will continue his strong goal-kicking form with another pair of majors.