Western Bulldogs v Hawthorn betting tips | AFL Finals Week 1

Bulldogs v Hawks top betting picks

Western Bulldogs v Hawthorn AFL preview

The 2024 AFL Finals Series continues this Friday night with a blockbuster elimination final at the MCG between the Western Bulldogs and Hawthorn.

As two of the form sides in the competition face off, top AFL odds for this clash are close. The Bulldogs come in as slight favourites at $1.74 with PlayUp, while the Hawks offer more value at $2.18 with Unibet.

The Western Bulldogs finished the season in excellent form, winning six of their last seven matches to secure a sixth-placed finish. They wrapped up their season with an impressive 37-point victory over the GWS Giants in an excellent defensive performance.

Conceding over 75 points just once in the last six weeks, Luke Beveridge’s men finished with the best defensive record in the AFL. They also hold the second-best attacking record, while they are 5-5 against the other top-eight sides this season.

In positive injury news for the Doggies, All-Australian midfielder Adam Treloar is expected to recover from calf tightness suffered in round 24. With Jason Johannisen, Rhylee West and Laitham Vandermeer all now available, Beveridge faces a selection dilemma.

After starting the season 0-5, Hawthorn have stormed into the finals after winning 11 of their last 13 matches. They have the youngest list among the top eight, but they’ve run out matches better than any other side since the bye, with an average winning margin of 67 points per game.

Sam Mitchell’s men have been particularly strong at the MCG — they haven’t lost their since round seven — and will have the added boost of playing an ‘away final’ at their home ground.

Besides the loss of tall forward Mitchell Lewis to a season-ending knee injury, Will Day (shoulder) is the only key player missing for the Hawks. Dashing defender Changkuoth Jiath returned through the VFL last weekend and will be right in the mix for a return.

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AFL finals predictions: Bulldogs v Hawks tips

While both teams enter this clash in excellent form, the Hawks’ devastating performances at the MCG give them the edge. They have won their past five matches at the venue by an average of 55 points, while the Bulldogs have won just two of their last six there. Hawthorn have also won the last two meetings between the sides, and they offer excellent value as underdogs at $2.18 with Unibet.

While finals matches are traditionally physical affairs, this could be a high-scoring game. The Hawks have kicked over 110 points in five of their last six outings, while the Bulldogs have gone over the total points line in three of their last four matches. Last time these sides met, they combined for 189 points, so back this to go over the 166.5 points at $1.90 with leading Australian bookies.

With more than 30 touches in three of his last four games, Hawthorn midfielder Jai Newcombe enters these finals in red-hot form. He attends more centre bounces than any other Hawks on-baller and has collected the most disposals at the club this season. At $4 with top sports betting sites, Newcombe offers excellent value to continue his good form with 30 or more disposals.

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