West Coast v Carlton AFL tips & same game multi – 29/4/2023

This Saturday night, the West Coast Eagles take on Carlton at Optus Stadium in a game where both teams are looking to snap their losing streak.

It is shaping to be another tough season for the Eagles following their 17th-place finish last year. They continue to be hampered by new casualties every week, with 17 players currently on their injury list. With just one win this year, it appears to be another season of rebuilding and blooding new talent, having already offered four players their AFL debut this season.

Last week against Port Adelaide, the Eagles stayed in touch for the first quarter, but a 38-9 second stanza set up a comfortable win for the Power. However poor the margin looked, there were still positives on the day – such as a career-best efforts from midfielder-forward Jai Culley. Having only kicked one goal in his career until then, the first pick in last season’s mid-season draft booted four goals as he played a different role in which he attended no centre bounces and gathered nearly all his touches inside 50.

Another positive for the Eagles this season has been the career-best form of Tim Kelly. Having been brought over in a blockbuster trade from Geelong in 2020, there were enormous expectation placed upon him to lead the West Coast midfield. Following three mixed campaigns in Perth, this season he is silenced the doubters. He averages career-highs in both disposals (29.8) and tackles (4.7), implementing his presence in the midfield. Expect him to get 30 or more disposals this weekend ($2.25).

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The Carlton Blues started the season in great form, sitting undefeated through four rounds, but their last two weeks have been much the opposite. Last weekend they lost to St Kilda by 22 points in a game where the final scoreline flattered the Blues.

Known for their high-powered forward line, Carlton were held to only eight goals on the day as the St Kilda defensive system stood up. Another issue for Carlton was that they had 86 more disposals than the Saints, yet they had less inside 50s, suggesting they over-possessed the football and struggled to create chances for their forwards.

Although the Carlton forward line was kept quiet last week, Charlie Curnow still showed why he is one of the premier players in the competition, kicking 3.3. Last year’s Coleman Medal winner has continued on his great form from last year, averaging 3.5 goals a game and sitting second in the league goalkicking standings. His combination of size and speed creates a matchup nightmare for defenders as he consistently outworks his opponents to collect the footy and draw free kicks. Against an undermanned West Coast defence, we expect Curnow to kick three or more goals ($1.51).

West Coast have conceded the most points in the competition, and on a clear night in Perth, the Carlton forward unit will be looking forward to putting on a big score. At the other end, Oscar Allen and Jack Darling have combined for 25 goals already this season and will look to continue on their scoring ways. As such, expect the total points to be over 169.5 ($1.88).

The plethora of injuries will be too much to overcome for the Eagles on Saturday as the Blues run out comfortable winners and re-establish themselves as a finals contender. Carlton for the win pays $1.23 at Marantelli Bet.

Key matchup: Barrass v McKay

Tom Barrass vs Harry McKay

A battle of two heavyweights is intriguing this weekend, as the 2021 Coleman Medal winner comes up against one of the best key defenders in the competition.

In last year’s matchup, Harry McKay took the chocolates as he kicked five goals on a day where Carlton ran out comfortable 10-goal winners. However, his form of late has been concerning; besides his four-goal effort against the Kangaroos in round four, he has only kicked five other goals this season, which is massively down on his previous season’s efforts. This weekend there will be plenty of chances for McKay to take over the game and add to his tally.

Last year was a career-best season for Tom Barrass, who was named in the All-Australian squad for the first time. Each week he gets tasked with the opposition’s biggest forward, and this time it is McKay. With many other regular defenders missing around him, he needs to ensure not only that his own man is taken care of, but also that he is able to assist the inexperienced players around him. Taking McKay out of the game may be a crucial factor in any chance the Eagles have to get something out of this game.

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