UFC Fight Night: Yan vs Dvalishvili main card picks – 12/3/2023
The main card for UFC Fight Night: Yan vs Dvalishvili is stacked with European talent and features a rerun of the cancelled bout between Ryan Spann and Nikita Krylov. We have uncovered a range of value bets across this stacked card out of Las Vegas.
Petr Yan (16-4-0) v Merab Dvalishvili (15-4-0)
READ: Petr Yan v Merab Dvalishvili UFC Fight Night Tips & Best Bets
Alexander Volkov (35-10-0) v Alexandr Romanov (16-1-0)
Alexander Volkov (+125) has a win-loss-win-loss pattern emerging of late, but he has been facing the best heavyweights on the UFC roster. His last outing was a quick knockout win over Jairzinho Rozenstruik, the fight before was a submission loss to Tom Aspinall, and he went five rounds with Ciryl Gane in June 2021. Volkov is a huge man, even for the heavyweight division, standing 6’7″ and weighing 256 pounds. That size might prove critical here because he enjoys a five-inch height and reach advantage over Romanov.
Alexandr Romanov (-156.25) entered the UFC in September 2020 and went on an immediate winning run. He collected five successive victories over some of the lower rated heavyweight combatants like Juan Espino and Jared Vanderaa before being slowly progressed through the grades. Romanov lost his most recent contest via close decision against Marcin Tybura, the first defeat of his professional career. The Moldovan has a knack for finishing fights with six knockouts, nine submissions, and only one decision win on his record.
Alexandr Romanov to win
Nikita Krylov (29-9-0) v Ryan Spann (21-7-0)
This fight was cancelled on 25 February due to illness and fans will be keen to see it play out. It will be held at a catchweight of 215 lbs.
Nikita Krylov (-175.44) has fought the toughest competition in the UFC’s light heavyweight division. Although his recent results look somewhat patchy with four wins and four losses since 2018, the losses have occurred against former champs Jan Blachowicz and Glovier Texeira, top contender Magomed Ankalaev, and dangerous submission artist Paul Craig. Krylov’s wins during this period were over Volkan Oezdemir, Alexander Gustafssen, Johnny Walker, and Ovince Saint Preux. This has been no easy path and he is a tough and talented fighter with the skills to contend against any opponent.
Ryan Spann (+140) comes into this bout following the most impressive performance of his career when he starched Dominic Reyes in the opening seconds of their November 2022 match-up. Spann brings a much more consistent recent record into this contest with 13 wins and two losses from his last 15 trips to the cage. The losses were to Johnny Walker and Anthony Smith, and the wins include names such as Ion Cutelaba, Sam Alvey, and Devin Clark, so fighters of similar calibre to those Krylov has faced. Spann has recently improved his training intensity and we are keen on his chances.
Ryan Spann to win
Ricardo Ramos (16-4-0) v Austin Lingo (9-1-0)
Ricardo Ramos (-384.62) is a Brazilian who loves to finish fights via either submission or spinning back elbow. The flashy featherweight has won four of his last six fights including a Performance of the Night effort against Danny Chavez in June 2022. He can be a little reckless early in his contests and is prone to be exposed in the first round but is favoured to have an athletic edge in this bout. His BJJ black belt should give him an advantage on the mat, should either fighter score a takedown.
Austin Lingo (+290) has lost a single professional bout during his career and has looked solid winning his last two contests via decision. He is a latecomer to the MMA ranks but appears to have plenty of potential and has trained in self-defence since his teenage years. The loss occurred when making his UFC debut so nerves may have been a factor. The Texan has a BJJ, Muay Thai, and Taekwondo background, giving him a well-rounded skill set. While this match-up represents a step up in grade, he possesses a high fight IQ and should be able to match wits with the more experienced Ramos.
Fight will go the distance
Said Nurmagomedov (17-2-0) v Jonathan Martinez (17-4-0)
Said Nurmagomedov (-263.16) is another exciting Russian fighter on this card with an excellent winning record. He has won six of his seven UFC bouts with the sole loss occurring via decision in 2019. Nurmagomedov’s list of recent scalps includes Cody Stamann, Douglas Silva de Andrade, and Saidyokub Kakhramonov. A strong grappler he earned Submission of the Month honours with his ninja choke submission over Kakhramonov and has five total wins via tap out. He fought for numerous promotions before making his UFC debut, compiling an early record of 11-1 before signing with Dana White’s outfit.
Jonathan Martinez (+205) comes into this contest on a hot winning streak of four, including a leg-kick TKO over fan favourite Cub Swanson that earned a Performance of the Night bonus. A powerful striker, he has eight total professional wins by knockout, including four coming via knees. He is a hard worker with excellent cardio, and this should be a compelling contest between talented athletes with contrasting styles.
