UFC Fight Night 106 predictions, free tips & betting news

A rising star and a falling one headline UFC Fight Night 106 in Fortaleza, Brazil.

MMA betting fans have a full card of 12 fights to enjoy, with prelims to kick off around 11am AEDT on Sunday, March 12.

Let’s check with our top-ranked UFC bookmakers and see where the money is.

Preliminary card

From 11am AEDT

Paulo Borrachinha (8-0) – -256.41 at Sportsbet
Garreth McLellan (13-5) – +225 at CrownBet

Rony Jason (14-6) – -105.26 at William Hill
Jeremy Kennedy (9-0) – -109.89 at Ladbrokes

Josh Burkman (28-14) – +202 at Sportsbet
Michel Prazeres (21-2) – -250 at Ladbrokes

Joe Soto (17-5) – +145 at CrownBet
Rani Yahya (23-8) – -163.93 at Ladbrokes

Sergio Moraes (11-2-1) – -222.22 at Sportsbet
Davi Ramos (6-1) – +185 at CrownBet

Francisco Trinaldo (21-4) – +125 at CrownBet
Kevin Lee (14-2) – -149.25 at Ladbrokes

Main card

From 2pm AEDT

Tim Means (26-7-1) – -250 at William Hill
Alex Oliveira (15-4-1) – +215 at Ladbrokes

Thanks to a stray knee to the head, it was no contest when these two met in December at UFC 207. A tally of 18 knockout wins tells you all you need to know about Means, while 10 KO wins from 15 paints much the same picture of his rival. Get on the favourite here.

Bethe Correia (10-2) – +100 at Sportsbet
Marion Reneau (7-3) – -120.48 at Ladbrokes

Both these girls snapped two-bout losing runs last time out, but that’s where the similarities end. Correia is happy to hang and take fights to the distance, while Reneau likes to knock folks down and force a result. Tough one, but we are tipping the ‘Pitbull’ to grind out a win.

Ray Borg (10-2) – -125 at CrownBet
Jussier Formiga (19-4) – +114 at Sportsbet

Both these guys are very strong grapplers, so expect a lot of scrambling on the floor in pursuit of peak submission position. Borg has shown great improvement in his boxing game in recent times, so that could be the difference in this flyweight tussle.

Edson Barboza (18-4) – -175.44 at CrownBet
Beneil Dariush (14-2) – +155 at Ladbrokes

Barboza is looking to push his name into lightweight title contention alongside Tony Ferguson, while victory for Dariush could see him skip into the top five and potential bouts with the likes of Eddie Alvarez and Michael Chiesa. We like Barboza to give the fans in Fortaleza what they want.

Mauricio Rua (24-10) – -142.86 at William Hill
Gian Villante (15-7) – +122 at Sportsbet

The joint top card is a huge fight for both. A win here would put ‘Shogun’ Rua close to title contention, while Villante needs a marquee scalp if he wants to keep progressing at this level. Tight, but the Brazilian on home soil is probably the go.

Main event: Belfort vs. Gastelum

Vitor Belfort (25-13) – +310 at Sportsbet
Kelvin Gastelum (13-2) – -384.62 at CrownBet

It is a little disappointing that the main event at UFC Fight Night 106 is the most lopsided bout on the entire card.

Vitor Belfort was a seriously good fighter four or five years ago, but the 39-year-old from Rio de Janeiro is starting to look his age.

He has lost three of his four fights since returning to the octagon in 2015, all of them by knockout.

The way he went down to Gerard Mousasi’s punching game last time out does not bode well for the veteran middleweight.

Kelvin Gastelum enjoyed a very fruitful 2016, beating Johny Hendricks on decision at UFC 200 and then flooring Tim Kennedy inside three rounds at UFC 206.

The 24-year-old from Arizona looks right at home in the 185-pound bracket and knows how to win both with his fists and on the ground.

It would be a fairytale if Belfort were to get up in Fortaleza, but the money has to go on Gastelum by knockout.

For the sake of sentiment and value, there is money to be had in backing the local hero to hold on until the second round.

Gastelum by KO – -149.25 at Sportsbet

Gastelum to win in round two – +400 at William Hill