Sydney Swans v Port Adelaide AFL tips & best bets – 8/4/2023

The AFL world turns its attention to the SCG this Saturday night for a mouth-watering clash as the Sydney Swans take on the Port Adelaide Power. The Swans enter this match having been taken to task by Melbourne last week, while the Power proved to be the lesser of the two Adelaide sides in the Showdown.

If you solely look at the overall statistics of the Swans’ game against the Demons last week, you’d be hard pressed to find out where Sydney went wrong. They matched Melbourne in almost every category, but struggled to make any dent on the scoreboard. It’s uncharacteristic of a proud forward line that is led by one of the game’s greats in Lance Franklin. So for the Swans, the task is simple: maximise the inside 50s and kick more goals.

For the Port Adelaide Power, the fix isn’t that simple. Outside of the clearance game, the Power lost almost every other statistical category against the Crows. It’s like they got their hands on the ball and then wondered what they should actually do with it. It’s a clear issue with their gameplan and, unfortunately, that is something that you can’t fix week-by-week.

The Power should go into this game confident. They do have a strong list, and the Swans haven’t beaten them since 2016. But you can’t expect a good list and a good record against a team to carry you to victory – especially when your ‘good list of players’ don’t run defensively and they haemorrhage goals when the game is on the line. Expect the Swans forwards to pick up their game and exploit a leaky Power defence, justifying their favourite price of $1.33 with the top betting sites.

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It’s not all doom and gloom for the Power; they proved that they can dominate in the clearances. The Swans are good at this too, but they can be seriously challenged by strong midfield bulls, particularly after the retirement of Josh Kennedy. This means that the big bodies of the Power can bully the Swans midfield in the centre and get the ball moving forward for their team.

One player who can flex this level of strength is Port Adelaide’s only Brownlow Medal winner, Ollie Wines. He hasn’t had the strongest of starts to the season, but good players don’t stay down for long. With the midfield conditions suiting his skillset, it’s not farfetched to see Wines get 25 or more disposals this weekend ($1.43).

If we are going against history with the overall result going with the Sydney Swans, then we can’t ignore the total points history. Despite Port’s dominance, most of the recent games against the Swans have been real arm-wrestles with the total points for the game never exceeding more than 152 in their last three outings. Expect to see much of the same level of contest as both sides look to address their weaknesses, with the overall score going under 172.5 ($1.88).

Key matchup: Lance Franklin v Tom Jonas

Lance Franklin vs Tom Jonas

It’s a massive week for Port Adelaide skipper Tom Jonas. The leader of the Power’s backline has come under much criticism in the past fortnight for allowing too much space for forwards to roam. Last week he allowed his direct opponent, Riley Thilthorpe – only in his third year of AFL footy – to kick five goals. Now he must go head-to-head with a walking legend of the game in Lance Franklin. Franklin himself is visibly slowing down as age saps him of his once-prestigious athletic ability. But don’t let this fool you – Franklin can explode for five or more goals at the drop of a hat if he so much as feels like it. Jonas will have to utilise all his defensive skills if he is to slow down Franklin and give his side the best chance at victory.

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