State of Origin Game 3 betting tips & odds | July 9, 2025

Best bets for New South Wales vs Queensland

State of Origin Game 3 preview

The 2025 State of Origin series reaches its boiling point at Accor Stadium in Sydney this Wednesday night, with the ledger locked at 1-1 after two wildly different contests.

New South Wales are warm $1.40 favourites with the top online bookmakers to clinch back-to-back series victories for the first time since 2018-19, while Queensland, priced around $3, are chasing another classic boilover — something they’ve achieved in 11 of the past 15 Game 3 clashes.

The Blues were commanding in Game 1, winning 18-6 in Brisbane, but let a series-clinching opportunity slip through their fingers in Perth, going down 26-24 after a first-half horror show. Trailing 26-6 at the break, Laurie Daley’s men clawed their way back with five tries to four, including a Brian To’o hat-trick, but Zac Lomax’s two-from-five goalkicking proved costly in a game decided by two points.

Game 2 man of the match Cameron Munster remains the Maroons’ key threat, but he faces a huge personal challenge after the passing of his father last week. Munster left camp to be with family and won’t rejoin it until the captain’s run on Wednesday. It’s a heavy emotional load for the skipper, but Queensland will need another big performance from him under tough circumstances if they’re to spring the upset.

The narrative around this decider centres on whether the Blues can iron out their discipline and finishing issues — and whether the Maroons can replicate the blistering first-half ambush from Perth.

NSW Blues v QLD Maroons Game 3 team lists

New South Wales Blues

1. Dylan Edwards
2. Brian To’o
3. Stephen Crichton
4. Latrell Mitchell
5. Zac Lomax
6. Jarome Luai
7. Nathan Cleary
8. Max King
9. Reece Robson
10. Payne Haas
11. Liam Martin
12. Angus Crichton
13. Isaah Yeo
14. Connor Watson
15. Spencer Leniu
16. Hudson Young
17. Stefano Utoikamanu

NSW have stuck solid with their Game 2 lineup despite injury clouds hovering over several stars. Nathan Cleary is nursing a groin niggle, Jarome Luai has battled an infection, and Brian To’o picked up a minor knee issue last week. Still, all are expected to play.

Queensland Maroons

1. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow
2. Xavier Coates
3. Robert Toia
4. Gehamat Shibasaki
5. Valentine Holmes
6. Cameron Munster (c)
7. Tom Dearden
8. Josh Papalii
9. Harry Grant
10. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui
11. Reuben Cotter
12. Kurt Capewell
13. Trent Loiero
14. Kurt Mann
15. Lindsay Collins
16. Patrick Carrigan
17. Jeremiah Nanai

Queensland coach Billy Slater has again shuffled his backline, with Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow shifting to fullback following Kalyn Ponga’s injury and Broncos bolter Gehamat Shibasaki making his Origin debut in the centres. Veteran prop Josh Papalii comes out of representative retirement to bolster the middle, replacing Moe Fotuaika in a classic Maroons SOS call.

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State of Origin Game 3 betting predictions

The Blues have dominated stretches of this series and look the sharper outfit across the park. Game 2 was a lesson in how costly a poor start can be, and you’d expect Laurie Daley’s men to come out firing this time to avoid playing catch-up. Queensland’s reshuffled backline could be exposed defensively, particularly under Cleary’s high-ball assault and fast left-to-right shifts. If NSW get their rhythm early and tidy up their goalkicking, they have the firepower to clear this line with room to spare at $1.95 odds with BetOnline.

Zac Lomax has shown a nose for the try-line in this series, crossing twice in Game 1 and threatening often on the right edge. Lomax’s aerial prowess and finishing ability make him the ideal candidate to strike first, especially off a pinpoint Cleary bomb or a quick backline move. At $7.50 with BetOnline, he’s superb value in a game where early momentum could dictate the outcome.

Nathan Cleary remains the heartbeat of New South Wales’ attack, and even carrying a groin concern, he’ll touch the ball more than any player on the field. His tactical kicking, game management, and ability to probe short sides make him central to the Blues’ hopes of regaining the shield. If NSW dominate possession and field position as they did in Game 1, Cleary will be the architect, so he’s the logical tip to claim man-of-the-match honours at $5 odds with BetOnline.

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