State of Origin Game 3 betting tips – NSW v Queensland

NSW v QLD Origin III betting predictions

State of Origin Game 3 match preview

The 2023 State of Origin series wraps up on Wednesday as the Queensland Maroons head to Sydney seeking to complete a clean sweep against New South Wales for the fifth time in history.

The Maroons have made two changes to their side with Reece Walsh (suspension) and Thomas Flegler (foot) unavailable. AJ Brimson comes in at fullback for his first Origin game since 2021, while cult-hero Corey Horsburgh will make his long-awaited debut on the interchange bench.

Blues coach Brad Fittler has swung the axe with Hudson Young, Jarome Luai, Junior Paulo, Matt Burton, Stefano Utoikamanu and Tyson Frizell all dropped. Payne Haas (ankle) and Tom Trbojevic (pectoral) are also missing from the NSW side that went down in game two.

Knights centre Bradman Best, Rabbitohs second-rower Keaon Koloamatangi and Eels fullback Clint Gutherson will all make their State of Origin debuts. Cody Walker, Jake Trbojevic, Reagan Campbell-Gillard, and Jacob Saifiti have all been recalled to the side.

NSW v QLD Origin III betting strategy

While NSW appear to be planning for the future, the sheer number of personnel changes creates a side with less cohesion and Origin experience. The Maroons have already won this series and will be expected to complete a rare 3-0 series sweep, so the $1.90 at Marantelli Bet for the visitors to cover the -2.5 line is excellent value.

The return of Walker for the Blues will also unlock one of the biggest attacking threats in the side, Josh Addo-Carr. Walker boasts one of the best right-to-left passing games in rugby league, so there is a very good chance he will set up Addo-Carr on the wing for a try at some stage in the match ($2.35).

Walker’s presence in the Blues side will also create one clear plan of attack for Maroons halfback Daly Cherry-Evans. Playing alongside his captain will be Cowboys second-rower Jeremiah Nanai, whose form has improved drastically since returning to the Origin arena. Cherry-Evans has the skill in his passing and kicking game to target Walker’s defence and give Nanai a chance to score his second try of the series ($3.90).

Key matchup: Fifita v Koloamatangi

David Fifita vs Keaon Koloamatangi

NSW debutant Keaon Koloamatangi will be given a baptism of fire on Wednesday when he takes on David Fifita, who is in career-best form. The Queensland second-rower has carried the ball with incredible power this season while tackling at more than 92% efficiency. Koloamatangi has shown at NRL level he could excel in the Origin arena, and he will need to be at the top of his game to stop Fifita and make his an impact of his own.

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