State of Origin Game 1 preview & best bets – June 8, 2022

We had the undercard last month when Anthony Albanese towelled up Scott Morrison in the federal election.

The curtain-raiser was on the weekend when American boxer Devin Haney took Australia’s big hope George Kambosis Jnr to school for the unified world title in Melbourne.

Now we prepare for the main event – the State of Origin opener — when 83,500 passionate fans will pack Sydney’s Accor Stadium to watch a mother of a battle between arch-enemies New South Wales and Queensland.

It promises to be a take-no-prisoners contest — a feud that was ignited at Brisbane’s Lang Park in July 1980 and which has intensified every year since.

Wednesday night’s combatants will be expected to play until they drop from sheer exhaustion.

There will be no quarter given by either side in what has become one of Australian sport’s fiercest and most brutal of clashes.

Queensland will have a rookie coach this series in former champion Storm fullback Billy Slater, a Queensland Origin great, who has gambled by including four rookies in his first Maroon side.

But Slater has wisely surrounded himself with a coaching staff bulging with Origin success, headed by games record holder Cameron Smith (42) and Cowboys legend Johnathan Thurston (37).

Still, NSW, as usual, are favourites with online bookmakers to go back-to-back.

But the Blues’ preparations for the crucial opening game of the series have not gone as smoothly as NSW coach Brad Fittler would have liked.

At one stage Fittler had the luxury of trying to squeeze superstar trio Ryan Papenhuyzen, Tom Trbojevic and James Tedesco into what would have been a lethal backline.

But he has lost both Papenhuyzen and Trbojevic to injury, which is far from ideal.

He has also copped a lot of flak for omitting Origin try-scoring specialist Josh “The Fox” Addo-Carr and instead selecting lanky Roosters winger Daniel Tupou.

Tupou has played eight Origins and scored two tries and at times can come with an error or two.

Addo-Carr, who switched clubs from the high-profile Storm to NRL battlers Canterbury this season, has appeared in 12 Origins and crossed for 10 tries – only two shy of the NSW record.

It’s confused a lot of pundits who believe Fittler should have been loyal to Addo-Carr.

Looking at the two sides it’s difficult to understand why NSW are heavy favourites, but then again, that’s how Queensland love to go into Origin as underdogs.

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Let’s look at the backline matchups.

Fullbacks: James Tedesco v Kalyn Ponga.

Tedesco probably takes the points here with his heavy involvement for 80 minutes and his ability to turn up in the middle at just the right time. Ponga, though, is very dangerous in broken play and needs to be kept in check at all times.

Wing: Brian To’o v Selwyn Cobbo.

This could be one of the feature matchups of the game between these two explosive athletes. To’o is a powerful ball-runner and very difficult to tackle, deceptively strong and a quality finisher. Cobbo is a superstar in the making, big, strong, fast, a fend as good as any in the game and the ability to create something from nothing. This may come down to how well Cobbo handles the nerves and big occasion in his debut.

Wing: Daniel Tupou v Xavier Coates.

Tupou has the edge in experience here, but he can make an error at times under pressure. He has a big point to prove after being controversially selected ahead of Addo-Carr. Coates is very good in their air but he doesn’t cart the ball out of his red zone like Corey Oates, who has done the job before for Queensland. NSW will target Coates as his defence is also suspect.

The centres: Kotoni Staggs and Jack Wighton up against Valentine Holmes and Dane Gagai. They look pretty evenly matched and all four are potential match winners. Even contest.

The halves will be crucial to the outcome.

Jerome Luai and Nathan Cleary up against Cameron Munster and Daly Cherry-Evans looms as a ripper clash, and again it looks fairly even with all four players capable of producing something which can turn the game.

The kicking games of both Cleary and Cherry-Evans will be pivotal, while the running games of Luai and the always-dangerous Munster are capable of opening up the clash late in each half.

The engine room, though, is often where the platform for victory is laid.

Up front NSW have two massive props in Payne Haas and Junior Paulo.

The Maroons will muscle up through Tino Fa’asuamaleaui and veteran 21-game hardman Josh Papalii, so you can bet neither side will be pushed around, intimidated or stood over.

The battle between Haas and Fa’asuamaleaui will be a beauty as the young bucks go toe-to-toe for every single metre for their side.

The forward packs are all quality and again probably cancel each other out in what looks like a terrific contest in the brutal battle for metres and any territorial advantage.

Both sides have match-winners on the bench.

Stephen Crichton will be injected into the game by Fittler when the cracks begin to appear in Queensland’s defence, while Slater will swing both Harry Grant and rookie back-rower Jeremiah Nanai into action when he wants to up the tempo.

There is very little between these two sides and the game could come down to which team gets the 50-50s calls and the bounce of the ball.

One thing we have learned about Origin is the best team on paper does not always win; it’s usually the team that plays best on the night.

It could come down to one special team play, one error, one refereeing decision, or an individual piece of brilliance.

That’s Origin.

NSW vs Queensland best bets for Origin I

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