State of Origin Game 1 betting tips & predictions | NSW v QLD

New South Wales v Queensland top picks

State of Origin Game 1 match preview

The 2024 State of Origin series kicks off in Sydney this year with a new-look New South Wales side hosting Queensland at Accor Stadium.

The Maroons have won three of the last four Origin series. This year, new Blues coach Michael Maguire will be attempting to begin his tenure in winning form to deliver the state its fifth series win since Queensland’s eight-in-a-row dynasty ended in 2014.

The Blues were backed early from $2.35 into $1.90 with the top online bookmakers. However, the market has softened on the home side, presumably due to injury concerns.

Maguire will be without Bradman Best (hamstring), Cody Walker (calf), Cameron Murray (hip), and Dylan Edwards (quad) through injury, while Eels stars Mitchell Moses and Clint Gutherson have only just returned to NRL action. He did, however, opt to drop Josh Addo-Carr, Reagan Campbell-Gillard, Keaon Koloamatangi, and Jacob Saifiti.

James Tedesco returns to the fullback jersey, with Joseph-Aukuso Sua’ali’i in the centres and Zac Lomax on the wing for their Origin debuts. Nicho Hynes has overcome a calf strain to firm as a starter at halfback, Jake Trbojevic captains the side from the front row with Payne Haas, joined by Angus Crichton and Cameron McInnes in the starting side. Hudson Young completes the bench alongside Origin debutants Haumole Olakau’atu and Spencer Leniu.

Maroons coach Billy Slater welcomes several stars back to his starting side. Reece Walsh returns at fullback, Tom Dearden starts in the halves alongside captain Daly Cherry-Evans, Lindsay Collins lines up with Jaydn Su’A in the second row, and Selwyn Cobbo fills out the interchange along with Origin debutant J’maine Hopgood.

Titans pair AJ Brimson and David Fifita drop out of the side that lost the third game of last year’s series, while Cameron Munster (groin), Tino Fa’asuamaleaui (knee), and Corey Horsburgh (groin) are all out injured.

State of Origin team lists

New South Wales Blues

1. James Tedesco
2. Brian To’o
3. Stephen Crichton
4. Joseph-Aukuso Sua’ali’i
5. Zac Lomax
6. Jarome Luai
7. Nicholas Hynes
8. Jake Trbojevic
9. Reece Robinson
10. Payne Haas
11. Liam Martin
12. Angus Crichton
13. Cameron McInnes
14. Isaah Yeo
15. Haumole Olakau’atu
16. Spencer Leniu
17. Hudson Young

Queensland Maroons

1. Reece Walsh
2. Xavier Coates
3. Valentine Holmes
4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow
5. Murray Taulagi
6. Tom Dearden
7. Daly Cherry-Evans
8. Reuben Cotter
9. Ben Hunt
10. Lindsay Collins
11. Jaydn Su’A
12. Jeremiah Nanai
13. Patrick Carrigan
14. Harry Grant
15. Moeaki Fotuaika
16. J’maine Hopgood
17. Selwyn Cobbo

NSW v QLD Game 1 betting predictions

The Maroons have made a habit of performing well in game one, winning and covering the line in four of the past five series. They’ve also won four of their last five games at Accor Stadium. With games two and three set to be played at the Melbourne Cricket Ground and Suncorp Stadium, respectively, Queensland will be determined to start strong with a win in Sydney at +105 odds with Neds.

The left-edge attack of the Maroons will be expected to pile on the points through Dearden’s partnership with Valentine Holmes, who has scored seven tries in 12 matches for the Cowboys this season. Holmes has a whopping 13 tries for Queensland since 2017 and will be expected to score another in this match (+230).

Blues coach Maguire has picked a squad full of defence-minded players who are incredible tacklers. On paper, this appears to be a side that will grind out a tough match at a ground where four of the five games have gone under the total points line. Expect another low-scoring affair with less than 36.5 points scored (-111.11).

Best State of Origin bookmakers

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