State of Origin Game 1 betting tips & odds – Wednesday 31/5/23

State of Origin Game 1 tips & predictions

State of Origin Game 1: QLD v NSW match preview

The 2023 State of Origin series kicks off at Adelaide Oval with the Queensland Maroons looking for their second series win in a row.

The start of the deciding match of 2022 was one of the most brutal patches of rugby league in recent history, with Cameron Murray, Selwyn Cobbo and Lindsay Collins being ruled out in the first five minutes. Then Ben Hunt stole the show, scoring a try from a charge-down to seal a win for the Maroons with just 15 men.

Leading into the 2023 series, both teams have made several key changes across the field.

Maroons coach Billy Slater has chosen to overlook the experienced Newcastle Knights pairing of Kalyn Ponga and Dane Gagai in favour of Bronco gun Reece Walsh and Dolphins flyer Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, while Cowboys winger Murray Taulagi has replaced Brisbane veteran Corey Oates (knee). The representative retirement of Josh Papali’i will see Thomas Flegler start in his first Origin game, while David Fifita has been recalled to the starting side to pair Tom Gilbert in the second row.

Blues coach Brad Fittler has the privilege of recalling Sea Eagles hero Tom Trbojevic and Rabbitohs star Latrell Mitchell into the centres to replace Matt Burton and Stephen Crichton, as well as Bulldogs winger Josh Addo-Carr in favour of Daniel Tupou (hamstring). Canterbury enforcer Tevita Pangai Junior will make his Origin debut in the front row replacing Jake Trbojevic (calf), with Canberra’s Hudson Young named in the second row and Cronulla star Nicho Hynes set to play from the interchange bench.

The Blues enter this year’s series with Trbojevic, Addo-Carr and Liam Martin all recovering from recent injuries. The Maroons have multiple players in career-best form, and history shows they are an incredibly profitable side to support. Back in the Queenslanders at $2.23 odds with the top bookmakers.

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Tom Trbojevic put on a dazzling performance for the Sea Eagles in the NRL last weekend to cement his spot in the Blues side; however, he has been hampered by hamstring issues all season. Valentine Holmes comes into this match after suffering an embarrassing loss for the Cowboys against the Tigers and will be keen to prove to coach Slater that was a once-off performance. In Game 3 of 2022, Holmes stormed through the Blues defensive line to score. In a similar situation, Holmes should be able to overpower Trbojevic, making him a solid play in the anytime tryscorer market ($3.60).

Adelaide Oval is not a classic rugby league ground and has shown in its only use as an Origin venue that points can be very hard to come by. Rain is predicted for the entirety of the lead-up to this match, making the ground underfoot heavy and the gameplan slow. Ball control will be the top priority of both sides, who will battle through the middle third of the field. Look for these conditions, and changed sides, to produce a low-scoring game that goes below 36.5 total points ($1.85).

Key matchup: Thomas Flegler v Tevita Pangai Junior

Thomas Flegler vs Tevita Pangai Junior

The battle in the middle between these two alpha males could be the highlight of the evening. Both players have the raw power and aggression to be brilliant players in the Origin arena; however, both have a history of overstepping the mark and landing themselves in hot water. Both Flegler and Pangai Junior have been in brilliant form for the Broncos and Bulldogs respectively. Whoever can keep their emotions in check the best, playing aggressively but smart, will give their side an edge.

2023 State of Origin Queensland Maroons Game 1 team list

Queensland Maroons

1. Reece Walsh (Broncos)
2. Selwyn Cobbo (Broncos)
3. Valentine Holmes (Cowboys)
4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (Dolphins)
5. Murray Taulagi (Cowboys)
6. Cameron Munster (Storm)
7. Daly Cherry-Evans (Sea Eagles)
8. Thomas Flegler (Broncos)
9. Ben Hunt (Dragons)
10. Lindsay Collins (Roosters)
11. Tom Gilbert (Dolphins)
12. David Fifita (Titans)
13. Patrick Carrigan (Broncos_
14. Harry Grant (Storm)
15. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui (Titans)
16. Reuben Cotter (Cowboys)
17. Jai Arrow (Rabbitohs)
18. Tom Dearden (Cowboys)
19. Christian Welch (Storm)

2023 State of Origin NSW Blues Game 1 team list

New South Wales Blues

1. James Tedesco (Roosters)
2. Brian To’o (Panthers)
3. Latrell Mitchell (Rabbitohs)
4. Tom Trbojevic (Sea Eagles)
5. Josh Addo-Carr (Bulldogs)
6. Jarome Luai (Panthers)
7. Nathan Cleary (Panthers)
8. Tevita Pangai Junior (Bulldogs)
9. Apisai Koroisau (Tigers)
10. Payne Haas (Broncos)
11. Tyson Frizell (Knights)
12. Hudson Young (Raiders)
13. Isaac Yeo (Panthers)
14. Junior Paulo (Eels)
15. Cameron Murray (Rabbitohs)
16. Liam Martin (Panthers)
17. Nicho Hynes (Sharks)
18. Stephen Crichton (Panthers)
19. Stefano Utoikamanu (Tigers)

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