Richmond v St Kilda AFL R14 betting tips – June 17, 2023

Tigers v Saints R14 predictions & best bets

Richmond v St Kilda AFL match preview

Round 14 of the 2023 AFL season continues on Saturday night with the Richmond Tigers hosting the St Kilda Saints at the MCG. Both teams come into this game following impressive interstate wins last week and will be hoping to continue that form.

Underdogs coming into their clash with Fremantle last weekend, the Tigers were extremely impressive as they led for most of the day and ran out 15-point winners. Leading from the front once again was midfielder Tim Taranto, who had 35 disposals and two goals.

Richmond have shown that, at their best, they can match it with some of the best teams in the AFL. However, every time the Tigers have looked to get on a roll this season, they have snuffed out their own momentum with a disappointing showing.

This week presents itself as that game once again for Richmond, coming in as favourites – despite sitting 12th on the AFL ladder – against a good St Kilda team. The question is: will the Tigers be able to show their best?

The St Kilda Saints faced the Swans in Sydney last Thursday and led at quarter time in one of the lowest-scoring first quarters you will see. Ross Lyon’s men sat behind at three-quarter time but rallied together in the last for a comeback win, getting up by 14 points. An overall team effort from the Saints, it was a particularly impressive showing from their defence, who played a dominant intercept game.

After starting out the season at an impressive 5-1, the Saints have alternated wins and losses over the past six weeks and have not won a game at home since round four. They still sit in fifth on the ladder, but if they are serious about their 2023 premiership chances, then a win this weekend will be essential to stay clear of the chasing pack.

Richmond v St Kilda betting strategy

With the injuries to the Richmond forward line and the opposition St Kilda defence conceding the least number of points in the competition so far, it is hard to see the Tigers kicking a big score unless they are able to find options through other means. The Saints prefer to sit behind the ball, so there is a big responsibility on the Richmond ball-users to try to find forwards in space.

However, Richmond are the second-worst team in the AFL for disposal efficiency, and it is easy to see the Saints comfortably dealing with the Tigers’ poor kicking inside 50 and creating a low-scoring contest on their terms. St Kilda ($2.10) look good for an upset against the favoured Tigers as they continue their push for a top-four finish.

Despite their finals aspirations, the Saints rank 14th in the league for points scored this season, and although key forward Max King has now returned, their forward line still lacks structure. St Kilda have kicked over 100 points just once this season and regularly win games based off their defensive play. The total points line for this one sits at 159.5, and we are taking the unders ($1.88).

The Saints backline will have its fair share of the footy and their main ball-user is running defender Jack Sinclair. One of the best half-backs in the competition, Sinclair can change the pace of the game at will, slowing it down or speeding it up based on the situation. He is constantly looked for to break the game open with his dash through midfield and his ability to find targets inside 50. Averaging 28 disposals per game this year, expect this trend to continue as he gathers 25 or more touches at $1.55 with the top AFL bookmakers.

Key matchup: Nankervis v Marshall

Toby Nankervis vs Rowan Marshall

An elite hitout ruckman, Richmond captain Toby Nankervis has been in excellent form since his return from injury. Nankervis loves to make his presence felt; the top tackling ruckman in the league, he is always putting in a second effort in the contest. He’ll have a big challenge on his hands this weekend as he takes on the hard-working Rowan Marshall.

The St Kilda ruck is known for his work around the ground and his ability to shift forward and hit the scoreboard. Not the greatest hitout player, Marshall more than makes up for it in his contested marking game. With the ability to play at both ends of the ground, he normally gets better as the game wears on and outworks his opponents to get into useful positions.

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