Richmond v Melbourne AFL R7 betting tips | ANZAC Eve 2024

Tigers v Demons AFL R7 best bets

Richmond v Melbourne AFL R7 preview

Kicking off round seven in the AFL, the injury-ravaged Richmond Tigers host the Melbourne Demons in the traditional ANZAC Eve clash at the MCG on Wednesday night.

Both sides are coming off the bye, but Melbourne enter this match as comfortable favourites at -500 with Unibet, whereas the Tigers offer value for the upset at +400. The line is set at 28.5, which gives plenty of room for Richmond fans.

The Tigers have just one win this season and copped a 39-point loss to the West Coast Eagles just before the bye. A win over the Swans in round four showed everyone what they can produce at their best, but given the extent of their injury list, their struggles look set to continue.

Tigers half-back Jayden Short has been ruled out with a calf injury he suffered against the Eagles, but Richmond are set to be boosted by the return of both Dylan Grimes and Jacob Hopper.

Prior to the bye, the Demons suffered an upset defeat to the Brisbane Lions. With a record of 4-2, Melbourne have all the quality to reach the top this season, but their lack of a dominant key forward remains a major concern.

In positive news for the Dees, small forward Kysaiah Pickett will return from suspension, while star midfielder Clayton Oliver is available despite having finger surgery last week. Running defender Christian Salem will miss after he suffered a hamstring injury against the Lions.

Richmond v Melbourne betting strategy

Melbourne would be favoured even if Richmond had a full-strength side, so it is hard to look past the Demons here. They have won the past four matchups between the teams, and it be a great shock if that trend didn’t continue. The Dees are heavy favourites with the best AFL bookmakers, so take the handicap of -28.5 for a bit more value at -112.36.

With 16 goals from six matches this season, Bayley Fritsch is by far the most dangerous option in the Melbourne forward line. His combination of speed and size makes him a matchup nightmare, and he has the confidence to take a shot on goal from anywhere inside 50. With the ball expected to spend plenty of time in the Melbourne attack, back Fritsch for three or more goals at +150 with Neds.

Given increased midfield time due to Richmond’s injuries, the versatile Liam Baker has been one of their best this season. Averaging 23 disposals over his past three games, his ability to combine outside speed with inside toughness means he is always involved in disposal chains. At -114.94 to collect 25 or more disposals, back Baker to continue his solid start to the year.

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