Rafael Nadal vs. Grigor Dimitrov Australian Open semi-final tips

Match starts from 7.30pm AEST

Head-to-head odds:
Nadal – $1.39
Dimitrov – $3.04

Game handicap:
Nadal -3.5 at $1.66 @ WilliamHill.com.au
Dimitrov +3.5 at $2.10

THIS certainly doesn’t seem like a battle between the ninth and 15th-ranked players in the world, but Rafael Nadal and Grigor Dimitrov have been playing lights out to set up an exciting Australian Open semi-final.

Nadal cruised through to the final four by beating Canadian Milos Raonic in straight sets on Thursday, which sets up a game against Dimitrov, who is finally living up to expectations.

The Bulgarian 25-year-old has been labelled as a talented player for many years, but he hasn’t lived up to expectations. His straight-sets win over David Goffin was full of class and although Goffin doesn’t strike the same resonance as Raonic, he can only beat what’s put in front of him.

The bookmakers are siding with 14-time Grand Slam winner Rafael Nadal after the Spanish star has seemingly turned back time to find his career-best form.

Nadal has been battling knee injuries for the past few years, but a change in tactics has given Nadal new life. Nadal once put tremendous top spin on the ball, which would create problems for his opposition, but it would prolong rallies and his ageing body paid a high price.

The King of clay is putting less spin on the ball, which is creating more pace and resulting in more winners. Dimitrov is good at returning balls and that’s where he has a better chance than the likes of Milos Raonic, who typically relies on a big serve and very little ground game.

With the game handicap set at only 3.5, the bookies are expecting a very close game and regardless of how many sets they play, bookmakers are predicting the sets to go the distance.

Nadal vs. Dimitrov – the history

The stats are overwhelmingly in favour of Nadal – all except one, which will give Dimitrov backers plenty of hope.

Nadal has won seven of eight against Dimitrov and the career statistics don’t even come close. Nadal has won 69 career titles, opposed to Dimitrov’s five, and he has won over $78 million in prizemoney, opposed to Dimitrov’s $7.5 million.

The class is evident with Nadal, but he didn’t find life easy at Beijing in 2016 when Dimitrov defeated the champion in straight sets.

With that confidence under his belt, Dimitrov looks a good bet to take at least one set against Nadal on Friday night.

Dimitrov is currently $1.33 at Sportsbet.com.au to take a set off Nadal and we think this match will go at least four sets.

For a little more value – take Dimitrov to win the first set at $2.40 with Sportsbet. His best chance is to rock Nadal in the opening set before the more experienced player finds his groove.

Nadal vs. Dimitrov game tips

We think Nadal has the mental stamina to overcome Grigor Dimitrov in this semi-final.

Nadal brings plenty of experience and his game against Raonic was a masterclass of good serving and top quality ground strokes.

The odds are a little skinny at $1.39, so we’re going to look for value in other markets. We think Dimitrov could take a set off Nadal, but only the one – therefore we suggest backing Nadal 3-1 ($3.60 at Palmerbet.com.au).

If the $1.39 doesn’t tickle your fancy for Nadal in the head-to-head markets, Sportsbet offers an alternate line. Punters can take -1.5 games at a better price of $1.44, which is much better value for the Spaniard.

Our tip: Nadal wins in four sets: 5-7 6-4 7-6 6-3