Queensland team prediction for State of Origin 2024 Game I

The countdown to the 2024 State of Origin series has begun, with game one set to take place at Accor Stadium in Sydney on June 5.

Injuries, suspensions and poor form have threatened to derail the Queensland Maroons’ campaign before it has begun. Fullback Kalyn Ponga (foot) and forwards Tino Fa’asuamaleaui (knee), Tom Gilbert (knee) and Thomas Flegler (shoulder) have all been ruled out with long-term injuries.

With less than a month before another blockbuster series begins, let’s look at how the Maroons will be expected to line up for head coach Billy Slater in game one.

1. Reece Walsh

Brisbane Broncos jet Reece Walsh looks set to be selected at fullback for game one despite a rocky start to the 2024 NRL season. Although a facial fracture in round three against the Panthers ruled him out for a fortnight, he’s scored eight tries from six line breaks and 27 tackle breaks, averaging 137 running metres per game. Walsh proved last year that he is born for the Origin arena, and he will be critical to Queensland’s chances once again.

2. Selwyn Cobbo

Selwyn Cobbo’s form for the Broncos has been incredible. Although he has come up with several errors in the opening weeks, he’s been an incredibly difficult ball-carrier to stop, with four line breaks and a whopping 46 tackle breaks. His selection on the right wing would come at the expense of Xavier Coates, who has had his struggles at Origin level with kick-returns — an area where Cobbo looks more comfortable.

3. Valentine Holmes

With 16 appearances and 13 tries for the Maroons since 2017, North Queensland Cowboys star Valentine Holmes is one of the most experienced players in this squad. Although his club has struggled in the early parts of the NRL season, Holmes always steps up in the Origin arena. Regardless of who lines up in the centres for the Blues, Holmes will mark up to any man he faces.

4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow

Despite being sidelined since round six with a hamstring injury, Dolphins gun Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow is likely to be selected in the centres. ‘The Hammer’ proved on his Origin debut in 2021 that he is more than capable of standing up to the best the Blues have to offer, taming a rampaging Tom Trbojevic while making 10 tackles without a miss.

5. Murray Taulagi

Cowboys winger Murray Taulagi had a solid start to the NRL season before a hamstring injury against the Eels in round six ruled him out for four weeks. Up to then, Taulagi had scored three tries from seven line breaks with 16 tackle breaks at an average of 165 running metres per game. He will only have a couple of club games to prove his fitness, but he would complete the perfect trio at the back with Walsh and Cobbo for Queensland’s kick-returns.

6. Cameron Munster

Melbourne Storm hero Cameron Munster is another who’s had a disjointed start to the 2024 season, having suffered a mystery groin injury leading into the opening round. His season started slowly before a commanding performance against the Rabbitohs in Melbourne on ANZAC Day, yielding a try and four try assists. He has been likened to the great Wally Lewis and will be one of the first names on the team sheet.

7. Daly Cherry-Evans (C)

Manly Sea Eagles captain Daly Cherry-Evans will be the first selected for the Maroons as he chases a fifth series win. The veteran halfback has been in brilliant form at club level, and he’s proved many a doubter wrong with his Origin performances in recent years. The quality of his kicking game was on full display last year, with averaging 467 kicking metres per game to go with numerous forced dropouts and try assists.

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8. Reuben Cotter

North Queensland prop Reuben Cotter has become an Origin mainstay due to his faultless work ethic and never-say-die attitude. His selection for game one of the 2022 series surprised many, but his 80-minute, 51-tackle performance showed Maroons fans he is the perfect man to replace Josh Papalii long-term. His form for the Cowboys this season has been solid, and there is no doubting he will stand up to the rigours of Origin football.

9. Ben Hunt

It’s expected St George Illawarra Dragons captain Ben Hunt will start at dummy-half in what may be one of his last seasons of representative football. The 34-year-old has had an incredible career for Queensland, capped off by his 78th-minute intercept try in game three to win the series in 2022. He will play a vital role in providing quality service to Cherry-Evans and Munster as well as in defence, where he made 72 tackles with just six misses in the 2023 series.

10. Lindsay Collins

Sydney Roosters enforcer Lindsay Collins will have an enormous role to play as a stand-in for the hard-hitting Tino Fa’asuamaleaui. The physical aspect of his game will be of no concern, with an Origin career average of 100 running metres per game. The highlight of his career came in game one of 2023, when he soared over Blues captain James Tedesco to set up the match-winning try. His experience and game-awareness will be invaluable in the middle.

11. David Fifita

Gold Coast Titans forward David Fifita’s start to the 2024 NRL season was disrupted by a pectoral injury that sidelined him until round four. The former Bronco has hit the ground running, however, with an average of 140 metres run per game to accompany his significant attacking skills. Fifita has played two full games for the Titans this season in the second row and will likely continue in that role as he seeks to prove his readiness for Origin selection.

12. Jaydn Su’a

It’s easy to forget Dragons second-rower Jaydn Su’a played a large role in all three games of the 2020 Origin series win as part of what former Blues captain Paul Gallen agreed was the “worst Queensland team in 40 years”. With three tries, 31 tackle breaks and 11 offloads with an average of 122 running metres, he has been a key part of St George Illawarra’s improvement this season and will provide versatility across Queensland’s forward pack.

13. Patrick Carrigan

Broncos star Patrick Carrigan has been arguably the best lock in rugby league over the past two years and will be the first forward coach Slater selects. The 26-year-old is a hard worker, averaging almost 200 running metres per game this season with a 95.4% tackle efficiency. He can cover any position in the forward pack if needed and is a future captain of the state.

14. Harry Grant

Storm hooker Harry Grant has played an invaluable role for the Maroons in recent years as an impact player off the bench when opposition forwards are tiring in the middle third. He made 101 tackles in the 2023 series alone, missing just five, while picking up valuable metres running and kicking from dummy-half. In this series, he may take on more minutes than in previous years to assist the aging Hunt in the hooker role.

15. Jai Arrow

South Sydney Rabbitohs forward Jai Arrow has been a brilliant servant for his state since debuting in 2018. He can play in the middle third as easily as he can on an edge, and he revels in the physicality of the Origin arena with a career 94.39% tackle efficiency. It’s been a tough season for Arrow on account of injury, but his 70-minute effort against the Panthers in round nine is a great sign that he will be fit for selection.

16. J’maine Hopgood

Injuries to several forwards in the Maroons setup have opened the door for Parramatta Eels prop J’maine Hopgood to prove his worth in the State of Origin arena. With an average of 118 running metres per game and a 96.62% tackle efficiency this season, he would be a brilliant workhorse from the bench and could play a similarly vital role to Grant with his ruck speed and offloading when Blues forwards are tiring.

17. Corey Horsburgh

Canberra Raiders enforcer Corey Horsburgh made his long-awaited debut for the Maroons in 2023 with 18 tackles in just 21 minutes on the field. He is a prime example of the passion and effort Queenslanders come to expect from their beloved side. The 26-year-old has struggled with injuries this season; however, if coach Slater calls and ‘Big Red’ is fully fit, he will not let the state down.

18. Tom Dearden

As a player who can jump into the halves or hooker and could even play through the middle third if asked, North Queensland’s Tom Dearden is an ideal candidate for selection as the 18th man. He also brings leadership qualities to the side as captain of the Cowboys and will almost certainly be a long-term replacement in the halves for either Munster or Cherry-Evans.

Maroons predicted team for State of Origin I

Queensland Maroons

1. Reece Walsh
2. Selwyn Cobbo
3. Valentine Holmes
4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow
5. Murray Taulagi
6. Cameron Munster
7. Daly Cherry-Evans
8. Reuben Cotter
9. Ben Hunt
10. Lindsay Collins
11. David Fifita
12. Jaydn Su’a
13. Patrick Carrigan
14. Harry Grant
15. Jai Arrow
16. J’maine Hopgood
17. Corey Horsburgh
18. Tom Dearden

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