Port Adelaide v Brisbane AFL betting tips & top odds – Rd 1, 2023

Port Adelaide host the Brisbane Lions this Saturday in a game that will give us an indication of where these sides sit after contrasting fortunes in 2022.

Brisbane finished sixth on 15 wins last season and reached the preliminary finals, while the Power could only manage 10 wins and 11th place on the AFL ladder. The odds are tight for this contest and both sides will be keen to hit the ground running with a bold showing.

Port Adelaide were beaten by 31 points by Fremantle in their practice match despite leading on some of the key stats. The Power generated 13 more inside 50s than the Dockers but were hampered by poor finishing. This would suggest that the midfield engine is working, but a more specific plan of attack plan is required.

Bombing the ball long into contested areas is not going to be enough to unstitch tight defensive units. Port also struggled in the hitout department, which meant their midfield stars were playing reactively and not receiving first use of the ball.

The Brisbane Lions could hardly have been more impressive in their 46-point win over Geelong in the pre-season. Their ball movement was a level above the Cats’, and they swept from one end of the ground to the other with decisive ease.

The Lions won the corresponding fixture against Port by 11 points in 2022; however, that game was played at the Gabba, where they have long enjoyed a sizeable advantage. Brisbane are third favourites to win the flag at the $7 mark with online bookmakers, and the premiership window should be open given the age and experience of their list.

Key matchup: Connor Rozee v Hugh McCluggage

Port midfielder Connor Rozee announced himself to the football world in 2022 and finished with 14 Brownlow Medal votes for the season. He is still only 23 and yet to fill out his physique, but Rozee grabbed 25 disposals, 11 kicks, and five tackles in the pre-season loss to Freo, suggesting he may have returned in even better form. He did not miss a game in 2022 and will be crucial to Port’s hopes of a top-eight finish.

Brisbane midfielder Hugh McCluggage posted 26 disposals, 15 handballs, and four tackles in Brisbane’s warmup win over the Cats. These returns were close to his 2022 averages of 24.7 disposals, 4.8 tackles, and 3.7 clearances. Only 25 years old, the 2020 All-Australian is still improving and can be expected to produce even greater output in the coming years.

Port Adelaide v Brisbane Lions Rd 1 betting strategy

We are keen on the Lions here, but this game might be a close struggle. The line is set at a skinny 1.5 points, and punters are torn between Brisbane’s better list and Port’s home-ground advantage. Few games are separated by two points, so we are tipping Brisbane at the line while expecting they will have to work hard for the victory.

Port Adelaide v Brisbane Lions AFL same game multi

For the value-hunters, we are linking our Brisbane -1.5 tip into Lincoln McCarthy anytime goalscorer, into Hugh McCluggage 25+ disposals. This combo will return $4.51 with BetOnline.

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