NRL set for frantic finals squeeze with 13 teams in contention

Some 13 NRL clubs are scrambling to secure top-eight spots in arguably the tightest premiership race in history.

Up to 12 of them have a shot at a top-four finish depending on how they play out the season after State of Origin wraps up next month.

Calculators will be required to work out all the permutations for the finals places.

As it stands after round 17, there are only six points separating the first-placed Penrith Panthers, who are on 24 points along with Brisbane and Melbourne, from the 13th-placed Manly Sea Eagles with 17 points.

The only teams who probably can’t make the finals are Newcastle (15 points), Canterbury (15), Wests Tigers (12), and St George Illawarra (12).

Throw in the two premiership points for byes that have yet to be added and Brisbane would theoretically be leading the premiership on 28 points, from Penrith (26) and Melbourne (26), with the Parramatta Eels (24) jumping from seventh into fourth place.

The Eels are also in good shape with a points differential of +132 should it come down to a tie for positions – as are Penrith, who own the best for-and-against record of +175.

It’s an incredible scenario for the NRL and fans to have with positions changing almost on every outcome.

Given the situation, there is no bigger clash this week than Friday night’s possible 2023 NRL Grand Final preview between defending premiers Penrith and Melbourne at AAMI Park.

Both clubs are on 24 competition points and have one bye in the bank, so the winner of the blockbuster battle will edge ahead of the other on the ladder.

Penrith have played in the last three grand finals, beating the South Sydney Rabbitohs 12-10 in 2021 and accounting for Parramatta 28-12 last year.

They lost the 2020 decider 26-20 to the Melbourne Storm.

The final game of round 18 this weekend between Manly and Sydney at 4 Pines Park is also a big one for both clubs, as they each need to keep winning to have a shot at playing finals football.

Once the third State of Origin game is played in Sydney on July 12, things will return to normal and NRL clubs will be able to field their strongest sides in the run to the finals.

At this stage, NRL bookmakers still have Penrith as favourites at $3.10 ahead of the Brisbane Broncos at $5, South Sydney at $5.50, Melbourne at $6.50, and Cronulla at $12.

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