NRL Finals: Storm vs Raiders betting tips, top odds & value bets

The first elimination final of the 2022 NRL season will take place at AAMI Park in Melbourne when the Storm host the Canberra Raiders on Saturday night.

Only one win separated the two clubs on the ladder in the regular season, but the Raiders trailed by as many as six games before they went on a remarkable 12-4 run to finish the year.

Melbourne have built a fortress at AAMI Park and opposition teams fear to tread there. Except the Canberra Raiders.

In the 12-year existence of the ground, the Storm have lost just 36 times and won a staggering 109 games.

Canberra have won seven times there when the next best team has three wins, and the Raiders currently have a four-game winning streak at the venue.

The long and short of it is they have absolutely no issue playing there and the thought of Melbourne crashing out in Week 1 for the first time since 2014 is real.

They may be a $1.38 favourite with online bookmakers, but this game should be closer to a coin flip.

Back in Round 18, the Storm lost Ryan Papenhuyzen to injury in this matchup, and it forced them to put Cameron Munster to fullback. Without Jahrome Hughes last week, they struggled creatively, and if his calf isn’t 100% it will mean they are forced to win in ugly style. If Munster doesn’t have his starting halfback inside him, he becomes much easier for the Canberra defence to handle.

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The Raiders might not be able to win the competition, but they are as good a pick as any underdog in Week 1. They’ve won a finals game at the venue and have had the wood over the Storm there in basically every visit over the past four seasons.

The recipe for success at AAMI Park has all come off the back of Josh Papalii, who somehow rises above whatever his form line has been in games before he arrives in Melbourne. Joe Tapine showed in the Round 18 game that he can be a running mate with Papalii and stand up to the Melbourne pack, running for 171 metres with almost half of them coming post-contact. He has been a nightmare to defend in 2022 and he shapes as the key cog in getting the upset. His offloading threat opens up the middle for Zac Woolford and Tom Starling, who have proven to be an excellent hooking tandem in the back half of the season.

Canberra also have Jack Wighton and Elliott Whitehead fresh from a break in Round 25, and their experience of big games at the venue will be vital to the youngsters around them.

The impressive number in the past four wins for Canberra at the ground has been how they’ve won the game while never having an overall possession advantage. They’ve drawn even twice and been at 45% in their last two wins, which tells you just how good their preparation is when they travel there. Get on the unders market in the total points, as it hasn’t exceeded 40 in those four games.

Hudson Young has 13 tries in 2022 and has scored in the last four for Canberra, so he will be the big consideration when looking for some good value in a same game multi.

Key matchup: Munster vs Wighton

It’s Jack Wighton and Cameron Munster – the two best players on the field for their club. While there is chance they will be wearing different numbers on Saturday, they will play a similar role for their team regardless. Both have a record of being outstanding when it matters most, and this could be the best individual matchup of the weekend.

Storm vs Raiders elimination final predictions

Absolutely get on the Raiders at +8 for a $2 return at Neds. If you’re really confident, the Raiders early in the week will be north of $3 in the head-to-head market and should be backed. The handicap is just paying respects to the excellence of the Melbourne Storm as an organisation.

Storm vs Raiders EF same game multi tips

Raiders +8 with Cameron Munster, Hudson Young and David Nofoaluma all scoring tries gets you a whopping $39.21 return at Ladbrokes.

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