Norm Smith Medal betting tips & value picks | AFL Grand Final

Who will take out the Norm Smith Medal for best on ground in the 2024 AFL Grand Final between Sydney and Brisbane this Saturday?

Historically, it is a midfielder’s award, with six of the last seven winners playing in the engine room. However, Collingwood small forward Bobby Hill broke that trend last year, when he won the medal with odds of $101 with top AFL bookmakers.

As such, we have looked all over the market to come up with our best bets for the 2024 Norm Smith Medal.

Isaac Heeney (Sydney)

Arguably best on ground in both of Sydney’s finals so far, it is no surprise to see Isaac Heeney as the outright favourite in Norm Smith Medal betting. His athleticism sets him apart, which helps him both through the middle and when he pushes forward. If the Swans get up, expect Heeney to be right in contention.

Chad Warner (Sydney)

Another one of Sydney’s midfield stars, Chad Warner has the ability to break the game open with his dash through the middle and goalscoring nous. The West Australian had 29 disposals and two goals in Sydney’s loss to Geelong in the 2022 AFL Grand Final, so if he can replicate that effort, Warner will be in the mix.

Lachie Neale (Brisbane)

The leader of Brisbane’s midfield, Lachie Neale will accumulate the footy throughout the day unless he receives direct attention. He was adjudged best on ground last Saturday against Geelong, and if Brisbane win this weekend, it is very likely that Neale will have played a big role in getting the ball out of the middle.

Errol Gulden (Sydney)

The biggest accumulator for the Swans this season, expect Errol Gulden to find plenty of the football as he roams the wing. His precision kicking game and elite endurance are his key attributes, while he is consistently trusted to deliver the ball inside 50 or to take a shot from long range.

Hugh McCluggage (Brisbane)

With an excellent mix of inside and outside skills, Lions midfielder Hugh McCluggage has been very consistent throughout this finals series. On the big stage last year, he was almost the difference with 21 disposals and two goals, so if he can produce another big effort in a Lions victory, he is in with a chance.

Brodie Grundy (Sydney)

With the absence of Oscar McInerney in the ruck, Sydney’s Brodie Grundy has the chance to produce a dominant effort against backup Darcy Fort. While a ruckman may struggle to catch the voting panel’s attention, Grundy is known for his contested work, while his endurance should stand out towards the end of the game.

Cam Rayner (Brisbane)

One of the most explosive players in the AFL, Brisbane’s Cam Rayner has the ability to turn a game around with just a few touches. After a quiet first half against Geelong, he burst through with two critical second-half goals. If he can kick three or more goals in similar fashion, Rayner could be a chance.

Zac Bailey (Brisbane)

Playing across half-forward, Zac Bailey is another player who can have a huge impact without racking up disposals. He is incredibly evasive and loves running through the middle, while he is also very opportunistic around goal, which gives him a chance if he can find the scoreboard.

Will Hayward (Sydney)

Sydney’s top goalscorer this season, Will Hayward is an accurate kick both from set shots and crumbing the contest. His contested marking is a key feature, and with three or more goals on five occasions this year, he offers great value as an outside chance in Norm Smith Medal betting.

AFL Grand Final betting tips