Norm Smith Medal 2025 betting tips, value picks & predictions

The Norm Smith Medal is one of the most popular AFL Grand Final betting markets, and this year’s best-on-ground award is shaping up as a wide-open affair.

The Brisbane Lions and Geelong Cats will clash at the MCG on Saturday, September 27, and both sides boast a heap of proven performers on the big stage.

AFL GRAND FINAL 2025: GEELONG v BRISBANE TIPS & PREDICTIONS

Indeed, each of the last three grand finals has featured one of these teams, and both have won premierships in that span, so it’s a powerhouse matchup loaded with star talent.

Check out the latest North Smith Medal odds, along with our expert tips for betting on the top performer in the 2025 AFL Grand Final.

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2025 Norm Smith Medal odds

• Bailey Smith – $7
• Patrick Dangerfield – $8
• Max Holmes – $9
• Will Ashcroft – $13
• Hugh McCluggage – $15
• Jeremy Cameron – $18
• Josh Dunkley – $21
• Dayne Zorko – $21
• Zac Bailey – $26
• Gryan Miers – $26
• Cam Rayner – $26
• Tom Atkins – $31
• Oliver Dempsey – $31
• Shaun Mannagh – $31
• Harris Andrews – $41
• Mark Blicavs – $51
• Jaspa Fletcher – $51
• Tyson Stengle – $51
• Darcy Wilmot – $51
• Callum Ah Chee – $67
• Charlie Cameron – $67

More Norm Smith Medal odds quoted at Marantelli Bet

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Norm Smith Medal 2025 tips & roughie picks

Geelong’s top pick: Patrick Dangerfield

Bailey Smith is the Norm Smith Medal betting favourite for a reason, but that just means we get more value about Patrick Dangerfield. Besides his relentless appetite for the footy and never-say-die attitude, the veteran’s ability to rest forward and impact the scoreboard makes him a great play in best-on-ground awards such as this.

Brisbane’s top pick: Will Ashcroft

Paying a juicy $13 with Australian bookmakers, last year’s Norm Smith Medal winner is hard to overlook. Will Ashcroft has been arguably the best player of 2025 AFL finals series, and we know he has a knack for catching the eye on the biggest stage in footy. If you fancy the Lions to win it, this guy is every chance to claim his second Norm Smith.

Geelong’s top roughie: Shaun Mannagh

Shaun Mannagh has been a revelation for the Cats this year, and he profiles well for the Norm Smith Medal. Players who rack up touches while scoring goals tend to catch the judges’ eye, as Isaac Smith did in 2022, and Mannagh comes into the 2025 AFL Grand Final off 10 majors in his past five games. If he maintains that form and manages around 25 disposals, he’ll be right in the mix.

Brisbane’s top roughie: Cam Rayner

While ball-winners tend to dominate individual awards in AFL footy, the Norm Smith Medal is one where impact often outweighs raw data. Collingwood’s Bobby Hill claimed the award with a first-half blitz in 2023, and it is easy to see a player of Cam Rayner’s ilk doing something similar. After big performances against the Suns and Magpies, Rayner looks a great value play at $26 with the best AFL betting sites.

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