New Zealand vs Australia Rugby betting preview & tips | Sept 27

New Zealand v Australia Round 5 best bets

New Zealand v Australia Round 5 preview

Australia bid to reclaim the Bledisloe Cup when they take on the All Blacks at fortress Eden Park in the fifth round of the 2025 Rugby Championship. Kick-off is set for 3:05pm AEST on Saturday, September 27.

The All Blacks are coming off a humbling 43-10 loss to South Africa in Wellington and will be desperate to reassert themselves at home, with the top online bookmakers making them the heavy favourite. They have not lost at Eden Park since 1994, but they meet a Wallabies side topping the Rugby Championship table and brimming with self-belief after several stirring comebacks this season.

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Scott Robertson has recalled Cam Roigard at scrum-half, Codie Taylor at hooker and shifted Will Jordan to fullback with Caleb Clarke returning on the left wing. Leroy Carter switches to the right wing as Damian McKenzie drops to the bench.

Joe Schmidt has been forced into changes with Andrew Kellaway and Rob Valetini ruled out, handing Max Jorgensen a start at fullback and bringing Harry Potter onto the wing. James O’Connor returns at fly-half and Ryan Lonergan could debut off the bench.

New Zealand v Australia Round 5 team lineups

New Zealand starting XV

15 Will Jordan
14 Leroy Carter
13 Billy Proctor
12 Jordie Barrett
11 Caleb Clarke
10 Beauden Barrett
9 Cam Roigard
8 Wallace Sititi
7 Ardie Savea (c)
6 Simon Parker
5 Tupou Vaa’i
4 Fabian Holland
3 Tyrel Lomax
2 Codie Taylor
1 Ethan de Groot

Bench: Samisoni Taukei’aho, Tamaiti Williams, Fletcher Newell, Patrick Tuipulotu, Peter Lakai, Cortez Ratima, Quinn Tupaea, Damian McKenzie

Australia starting XV

15 Max Jorgensen
14 Harry Potter
13 Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii
12 Len Ikitau
11 Corey Toole
10 James O’Connor
9 Tate McDermott
8 Harry Wilson (c)
7 Fraser McReight
6 Tom Hooper
5 Lukhan Salakaia-Loto
4 Nick Frost
3 Taniela Tupou
2 Billy Pollard
1 James Slipper

Bench: Brandon Paenga-Amosa, Angus Bell, Allan Alaalatoa, Jeremy Williams, Carlo Tizzano, Ryan Lonergan, Tane Edmed, Filipo Daugunu

All Blacks v Wallabies betting predictions

Australia’s dominant set-piece and growing belief make them dangerous underdogs. Wet weather in Auckland could tighten the game and play into their hands, making the +13.5 line at $1.95 with BetOnline an attractive start for punters.

Leroy Carter’s pace on the wing was one of New Zealand’s few bright spots against South Africa. With Beauden Barrett steering and Will Jordan chiming in from fullback, Carter should again get opportunities in space. At $2.15 with BetOnline, the anytime tryscorer market looks a savvy play.

Both teams have shown a willingness to run the ball in 2025 and the afternoon kick-off could still produce a high-scoring contest despite showers. The over 55.5 points at $1.90 with BetOnline offers solid value for fans expecting end-to-end rugby at Eden Park.

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