Melbourne vs Essendon AFL Rd 3 betting tips – Friday, April 1

The Essendon Bombers are staring down the barrel of a 0-3 start as they prepare to take on the mighty Melbourne Demons this Friday night in round three of the 2022 AFL Premiership.

Despite losing to the Lions as expected, the Bombers showed some improvement in round two. They started the game hot, kicking out to a 22-point lead at the first break before being reeled in by their better-credentialed opponents.

While there were some positive signs, the Bombers seem to struggle to adapt tactically during their games. They cannot switch to a Plan B when Plan A is clearly not working. This may be due to coaching deficiencies, but whatever the cause, they remain a work on progress.

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Perhaps the Essendon coaching team is working on instilling the fundamental skills of the sport and doesn’t want to confuse the group with too many complicated whiteboard diagrams. Who knows?

The Demons scraped home at Metricon Stadium against a very spirited Suns outfit in round two. We tipped Melbourne 1-39 expecting a low-scoring affair and the Dees carved out a 13-point victory without ever looking in danger of losing.

The Dees are warm flag favourites after just two rounds and are yet to put a foot wrong. They possess the nerve to win close games, and when they get on a roll their momentum can prove impossible to stop. The Demons play their best in open free-scoring games, so the way to counter their strengths is to play scrappy, high stoppage footy, which is what the Suns brought to the table.

Key matchup: Petracca vs Parish

With Zach Merrett out injured, the pressure will be on the remaining Bomber midfielders to find enough of the ball. Darcy Parish was a standout against the Lions and will need to do even more this week. Christian Petracca racked up 40 possessions against the Suns, so the midfield action will determine how this game pans out. If Petracca and Oliver get loose, Parish might spend the game chasing the ball rather than winning it.

Melbourne vs Essendon betting strategy

So, what’s the bet here? The line is 25.5 points, and either the Bombers improve again and hold the Dees under, or the favourites get on a roll and run away with the contest. The total scoring line is set at 168, suggesting a relatively high-scoring game, which favours the Demons. We’re predicting a similar game to the Bombers’ efforts vs the Lions. The Demons should get a roll late and add some margin to the scoreboard. So we’ll take the Dees -25.5 and won’t sweat if the Bombers are 10 or 15 points behind at half-time.

Melbourne vs Essendon AFL same-game multi

To add some value to the line bet we’ll put some faith in Ben Brown to boot some goals. He’s leading very well into open space this season and has some gun midfielders to feed him the ball. So Melbourne -25.5, Brown to score 2 or more goals, and Brown anytime goalscorer in the first quarter. This combo is paying $3.60 at BetOnline.

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