Melbourne vs Brisbane AFL tips & value bets – Finals Week 1

The Melbourne Demons and Brisbane Lions will meet in the AFL finals for the first time when they clash this Saturday night at the Adelaide Oval.

Live crowds are not permitted in Victoria due to ongoing COVID-19 restrictions, which is why this massive qualifying final has landed in South Australia.

Simon Goodwin’s Demons came back from 44 points down to stun Geelong last weekend, in the process clinching their first minor premiership since 1964.

The Lions needed a big win over the Eagles in round 23 to gain enough percentage to finish inside the top four, and they snuck over the line in a frantic finish to get up by 38 points.

Neither side suffered any injuries last weekend, but the Lions will make a couple of changes as Harris Andrews (hamstring) and Mitch Robinson (calf) make their return.

Melbourne vs Brisbane qualifying final preview

The Demons put on a show when these teams met in round 12, flying home with nine second-half goals to win by 22 points. Both sides were well in that contest, but Melbourne’s ability to turn inside 50s into shots on goal was ultimately the difference.

Small forwards are very important in the modern game, especially those that can hit the scoreboard on a regular basis. Zac Bailey and Charlie Cameron combined for six goals in round 12, while Kysaiah Pickett kicked 3.3 for the Demons. All three of those players are excellent options in the major goalscorer betting markets this weekend.

MelbourneDemons

• Trent Rivers
• Steven May
• Harrison Petty
• Jake Bowey
• Jake Lever
• Christian Salem
• Angus Brayshaw
• Christian Petracca
• Ed Langdon
• Charlie Spargo
• Tom McDonald
• Jack Viney
• Alex Neal-Bullen
• Ben Brown
• Bayley Fritsch
• Max Gawn
• Clayton Oliver
• Kysaiah Pickett
• James Harmes
• Luke Jackson
• Joel Smith
• Tom Sparrow
• Nathan Jones (Emg)
• Michael Hibberd (Emg)
• Jake Melksham (Emg)
• James Jordon (Emg)
• Coach: Simon Goodwin

BrisbaneLions

• Charlie Cameron
• Joe Daniher
• Nakia Cockatoo
• Dayne Zorko
• Daniel McStay
• Lincoln McCarthy
• Jarrod Berry
• Zac Bailey
• Hugh McCluggage
• Daniel Rich
• Marcus Adams
• Grant Birchall
• Brandon Starcevich
• Harris Andrews
• Darcy Gardiner
• Oscar McInerney
• Jarryd Lyons
• Lachie Neale
• Mitch Robinson
• Keidean Coleman
• Jaxon Prior
• Tom Fullarton
• Thomas Berry (Emg)
• Rhys Mathieson (Emg)
• Connor Ballenden (Emg)
• Jack Payne (Emg)
• Coach: Chris Fagan

Key matchup: Clayton Oliver vs Lachie Neale

Two of the best midfielders in the AFL will go head-to-head this Saturday night when Clayton Oliver and Lachie Neale lock horns. Neale has dropped off this year compared to his 2020 Brownlow Medal campaign, but he is still averaging over 25 disposals per match. Oliver currently leads the AFL for contested possessions off the back of first-class service from Max Gawn in the ruck.

We are expecting a very tough contest at the Adelaide Oval, so both midfielders will be crucial for their sides. Oliver and Neale should lead their teams for disposals and clearances this Saturday night.

Melbourne vs Brisbane QF predictions & best bets

Melbourne to win by 1-39 points

The combination of Max Gawn, Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca has been simply brilliant this season, and we expect they will dominate again on the big stage. The Brisbane Lions were excellent in their last three games, but we still think they are vulnerable without Eric Hipwood in the front half. The Dees have been very consistent this season and should outclass the Lions.

Kysaiah Pickett to kick 2+ goals

Kysaiah Pickett has been one of the best second-year players in the competition this year, slotting 35 goals without missing a game for the ladder-leading Demons. Pickett has kicked 14 goals in his last seven matches, including five games with multiple goals. The small forward looks built for the big stage and should put in another strong performance against the Lions.

Same game multi: 3 legs @ $11

We think the Demons will advance to the preliminary finals due to their superior midfield mix. Kysaiah Pickett will thrive under the bright lights in his home state, while Lachie Neale will lead the way for the Lions in the disposal tally.