Melbourne v Fremantle tips, best bets for AFL Rd 11, 2022

Fremantle will be the next side to try and stop the relentless Melbourne machine when the top four teams clash in Saturday’s AFL round 11 twilight fixture at the MCG.

The Melbourne machine rolls on. Despite some spirited resistance by the brave Kangaroos, the Demons had all the answers in round 10 to remain undefeated in AFL 2022 and for their last 17 appearances.

Great sides just keep coming in relentless waves of attack, and the Demons finally cracked North Melbourne halfway through the third quarter when Oliver and Petracca clicked up a gear. The dynamic duo amassed a combined 75 disposals by the final whistle, and that was the end of the Kangaroos.

We have stated previously that the Demons don’t really have any weaknesses across the ground. They are calm under pressure, trusting their superior skills and organisation will prevail.

The wheels have officially fallen off the Freo wagon. Unless they are purely a dry weather team, the last two efforts have been woeful. They scored a paltry 33 points against the Suns in wet, Gold Coast conditions in round nine, only to get stuck in the WA mud in round 10 and boot a miserable 44 points against the Magpies.

Unless there is some compelling reason why they can’t play wet weather footy, these losses represent a complete regression. The Dockers are capable of playing first class football, but it’s hard to imagine confidence levels are riding high after two straight humiliating losses.

It would take a phenomenal coaching performance to turn that around against the reigning premiers, and betting on miracles is a sure-fire way to go broke.

Key Match-up: Gawn v Darcy

Towering ruckman Max Gawn is the heart-and-soul of the Melbourne team. Just watch how the other players react when he boots a goal. He has been playing with heavy-leg bandaging in recent weeks though, and a horse trainer might be tempted to give Gawn a short spell to freshen him up. He is still listed to play and might just be a little susceptible at this point. Freo ruck Sean Darcy put up a herculean effort in round 10, nabbing 126 AFL Fantasy points, second only to Will Brodie who played out of his skin. At 203cm and 110 kgs, Darcy is surprisingly agile at ground level. The bandaged Gawn versus the firing Darcy is our key match-up here.

Melbourne v Fremantle tips and betting strategy

Melbourne is predictably short with online bookmakers for this game, the line is set at a relatively low 27.5 points, based presumably on Freo’s recent scoring woes and Melbourne’s solid defence. The total points line is also set very low at 148.5.

Betting markets are expecting a grinding, defensive match. Showers of rain and cold conditions are predicted, so goals may be at a premium. We are just going to play Melbourne at the line here. It would be no surprise to see Freo kick a score around the 40 points mark, so hopefully the Demons can put 70 or 80 on the board. Melbourne -27.5 is available at Labrokes Australia, with it paying $1.90.

Same Game Multi: Demons vs Dockers
For the value-junkies, who are never satisfied with a single bet per game, we will play this one relatively safe. We will link Melbourne -27.5, into Christian Petracca 25+ disposals, into Jake Melksham anytime goal kicker. This three-legged combo will return $3.37 courtesy of Neds betting.

More sports tips