Knights vs Sea Eagles NRL R5 tips, odds & value bets – 7/4/2022

Round 5 of the 2022 NRL Premiership will get underway in Newcastle when the Knights host the Manly Warringah Sea Eagles on Thursday Night Football. Both teams will be without big names after the early-season injury bug hit both camps, but in a classic rivalry from the 1990s that has a bitter history, it will matter for nothing once kickoff arrives.

Newcastle will be without David Klemmer, Jayden Brailey, Mitchell Barnett, Lachlan Fitzgibbon and possibly Tyson Frizell, who are all a walk-up starts to their best match day 17, while Manly have one glaring omission.

An enormous swing in the head-to-head betting occurred on Monday afternoon when it was revealed Manly superstar Tom Trbojevic had knee surgery and will be ruled out for up to a month. It saw Newcastle go from $2.80 outsiders to as short as $1.75 favourites with some online bookmakers, while the Sea Eagles drifted from $1.45 to $2.05 once Trbojevic was scratched.

His influence over the Sea Eagles is no secret. Since 2019, Manly are 28-12 in the games he has played, while they are 12-24 when he hasn’t played during that time period. When he was missing at the start of the 2021 season, many pundits thought they were a wooden spoon favourite and one of the worst teams of the NRL era, but once he returned, he won the Dally M Medal in the fewest games ever and Manly became a premiership contender. The swing in the market is completely justified, and both punters and bookies have reacted accordingly.

Newcastle had two terrific wins to start the year, but have fallen into a mini hole with two-straight losses. Playing with 12 men for 47 minutes against Penrith looked to have an effect in their 18-0 loss against Cronulla, producing what looked like a tired effort where they got outmuscled across the park.

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Newcastle teams of previous years would have let that score blow out to embarrassing levels, but they still fought quite hard, which indicates their mentality is different.

The fact they return to McDonald Jones Stadium will be a bit shot in the arm, having won five of their last six games there played at night. The other tidbit to watch is the under 36.5 total points line. Newcastle have gone under that line in seven of their last eight games, while Manly without Trbojevic have been notorious for struggling to score.

When it comes to finding some tryscorers for this game, it becomes difficult to predict with any kind of certainty where Manly will go in the hunt for points. Reuben Garrick is usually right in the thick of it, but without Tom Trbojevic, his path to the try line is much tougher. The one place to look might be the right edge with Haumole Olakau’atu. Newcastle are short on quality edge forwards and Olakau’atu could outmuscle someone like Jirah Momoisea if he wants to. The Knights have shown they slide particularly well on that edge, so it could be a case of Daly Cherry-Evans looking to change direction and find a hole back on the inside.

For the Knights, expect Kalyn Ponga to bounce back and have a huge game at home. He played probably the worst game of his career against the Sharks and then met with Wayne Bennett the next day about the possibility of switching clubs for 2023. He has the responsibility as club captain to try and put faith back in the hearts of Knights fans, and we think he will step up to the challenge and score a double.

Knights vs Sea Eagles predictions & best bets

Newcastle will win this and, if they’re serious, should win at the 13+ margin. If you get on that market early, you should get some real value.

Knights vs Sea Eagles same-game multi tips

The Knights for the big win with Kalyn Ponga, Enari Tuala and Haumole Olakau’atu to all score tries gets you a monster $66.46 payout at BetOnline.

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